MarketPulse - The Beat of the Global Markets

Chart alert: USD/JPY tests 156.13/50 resistance as hawkish Fed raises the bar for BoJ
USD/JPY has surged towards the key 156.13/50 resistance zone after a hawkish Fed rate hike reinforced the US dollar's yield advantage. Attention now turns to Japan CPI and the BoJ, where an expected hike to 1.25% may not be enough to strengthen the yen unless Governor Ueda signals further tightening. Technically, bearish RSI divergence raises reversal risk, with 155.45 acting as the key downside trigger.
by Kelvin Wong
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United Kingdom: The Bank of England faces a difficult choice
UK inflation accelerated to 2.9% in August, while core and services inflation remained stable. The data support keeping interest rates unchanged tomorrow but do not eliminate the risk of future tightening. With wage growth slowing and the labour market weakening, the four rate hikes currently priced in by markets still appear too aggressive.
by Łukasz Zembik
Chart alert: EUR/USD minor uptrend intact ahead of ECB as markets brace for 25bp rate hike
EUR/USD holds near a two-week high around 1.1640 ahead of the ECB monetary policy decision, with markets expecting a 25-basis-point rate hike to 2.50%. Attention is on Christine Lagarde's guidance as surging energy prices revive inflation risks and raise the possibility of further tightening. Technically, EUR/USD has moved back above its 200-day MA, with 1.1604 acting as the key short-term support.
by Kelvin Wong
Global forex shifts: Yen carry trade unwinds amid policy divergence.
This report analyzes the global forex market realignments driven by policy divergence between the Federal Reserve’s ‘higher-for-longer’ stance and the Bank of Japan’s pivot from ultra-low rates. It examines US rate expectations via CME FedWatch, Japan’s global funding role, and the rapid unwinding of yen carry trades, which triggered intense volatility across the USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, and AUD/JPY crosses, while outlining the critical impact of official government interventions.
by Moheb Hanna

Top cryptocurrency news and analysis

The US labour market is losing momentum – as is the USD
The June U.S. jobs report points to a clear slowdown in the labor market, with weaker nonfarm payrolls growth, lower labor force participation, and easing wage pressure. While layoffs remain limited, the data reduce pressure on the Fed to tighten policy further and have weighed on the U.S. dollar.
by Krzysztof Kamiński
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Top commodities news and analysis

Gold awaits Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech
Gold is undergoing a shallow correction ahead of Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. A neutral stance on easing financial conditions could support another test of USD 4,775 and USD 4,890 per ounce. A hawkish message, however, could revive expectations of a September rate hike, strengthen the dollar and trigger a deeper pullback.
by Łukasz Zembik
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Central banks news

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