USD/CAD – Canadian Dollar Remains Under Pressure

The Canadian dollar is showing almost no movement, as it continues to trade close to the 1.05 level in Wednesday trading. The loonie has been struggling against the surging US dollar, as USD/CAD has shot up about 200 points in the past three weeks. It could shape up to be a quiet day for the pair, with only a couple of releases out of the US. There are no Canadian releases on Wednesday.

It’s been an unusually quiet week so far in the US, with no major events due for release until Thursday. However, the dollar is managing just fine, riding on the coattails of Friday’s superb Non-Farm Payrolls. The markets had very low expectations from the key indicator, one of the most important economic releases. The estimate for the October release stood at just 121 thousand, as there was concern that the reading would be artificially low due to the government shutdown in October. However, the indicator put those concerns to rest, as the indicator soared to 204 thousand, its highest level in eight months. The outstanding NFP figure bolstered the US dollar against the major currencies, and has increased speculation that the Fed might press the tapering trigger in December. Such talk could bolster the US currency, as a reduction in QE is bullish for the dollar. At the same time, speculation about a scaling down in QE introduces some uncertainty and volatility in the currency markets.

Canada’s economy continues to post mixed numbers, but there was some positive news on the fiscal front. The finance ministry said it would post a budget surplus of C$3.7 billion starting in April 2015, much higher than the March forecast, which called for a surplus of C$800 million. This would mean that the country would achieve a balanced budget sometime in 2015, assuming that there are no hiccups along the way. A stronger fiscal situation could give a much-needed boost to the Canadian dollar.

USD/CAD for Wednesday, November 13, 2013

USD/CAD November 13 at 15:50 GMT

USD/CAD 1.0486 H: 1.0496 L: 1.0480

USD/CAD Technical

• USD/CAD is almost unchanged in Wednesday trading, as the pair trades slightly below the 1.05 line. The pair hit a high of 1.0496 in the European session.
• On the upside, the pair is testing resistance at 1.0502. Will the US dollar continue to climb and break through this level? The next line of resistance is at 1.0573. This line has held firm since early July.
• The line of 1.0442 is providing support. This is followed by a stronger support line at 1.0337.
• Current range: 1.0442 to 1.0502

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.0442, 1.0337, 1.0282, 1.0224 and 1.0158
• Above 1.0502, 1.0573, 1.0652 and 1.0837

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio is unchanged, continuing the trend we saw in Tuesday trading. This is reflected in the current movement of the pair, which is showing almost no change. A majority of the open positions in the USD/CAD ratio are short, indicating a trader bias towards the Canadian dollar breaking out and moving higher.

The Canadian dollar remains under pressure, as it trades close to the 1.05 line on Wednesday. With no Canadian releases and only a couple of US events on the calendar, the pair’s movement during the North American session is likely to be limited in scope.

USD/CAD Fundamentals

• 18:01 US 10-year Bond Auction.
• 19:00 US Federal Budget Balance. Estimate -104.3 B.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

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