AUD/USD – Aussie Steady After Mixed Australian Data

AUD/USD is trading quietly in Thursday trading, as the pair trades in the high-0.889 range late in the European session. In economic news, key Australian numbers were a mix, as  Building Approvals posted a second straight decline while Retail Sales improved and beat the estimate. Over in the US, ADP Non-Farm Payrolls looked excellent for December, climbing to a two-year high. Unemployment Claims will be released later on Thursday and the markets are expecting another strong reading

US employment releases started 2014 on a positive note, as ADP Non-Farm Payrolls looked excellent in December. The key indicator climbed to 238 thousand, up from 215 thousand a month ago. This easily surpassed the estimate of 199 thousand and was the best reading we’ve seen since December 2011. We’ll get a look at Unemployment Claims later on Thursday, followed by the all-important Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. With another QE taper in January a strong possibility, every employment release will be under the market microscope and could impact on the currency markets.

In Australia, the news was mixed from key releases on Thursday. Building Approvals, which is often marked by wild swings, did not show much movement in December, posting a decline of -1.5%. This was well of the estimate of -0.9%. There was better news from Retail Sales, which posted a gain of 0.7%, up from 0.5% in the previous month. This beat the estimate of 0.5%. The Australian dollar didn’t show much reaction to the news, as it continues to trade at low levels.

AUD/USD for Thursday, January 9, 2014

AUD/USD January 9 at 13:20 GMT

AUD/USD 0.8874 H: 0.8913 L: 0.8866

AUD/USD Technical

• AUD/USD has edged lower in Thursday trading. The pair touched a low of 0.8866 in the Asian session.
• On the upside, 0.8893 has reverted to a resistance role. This weak line could see further action during the day if the Aussie shows any upward movement. This is followed by resistance at the key level of 0.9000.
• On the downside, 0.8735 is providing strong support. The next support level is 0.8658, which has held firm since July 2010.
• Current range: 0.8735 to 0.8893

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 0.8735, 0.8658, 0.8505 and 0.8411
• Above: 0.8893, 0.9000, 0.9119, 0.9229 and 0.9305

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

AUD/USD is almost unchanged in Thursday trading. This is consistent with what we are seeing from the pair, which is showing very little movement. AUD/USD is made up of a substantial majority of long positions, reflecting a trader bias towards the Australian dollar breaking out and moving higher against the US currency.

The Aussie hasn’t had a great week, losing about one cent against the US currency. We could see some movement from AUD/USD during the North American session, as the US releases Unemployment Claims later in the day.

AUD/USD Fundamentals

• 00:30 Australian Building Approvals. Estimate -0.9%. Actual -1.5%.
• 00:30 Australian Retail Sales. Estimate 0.5%. Actual 0.7%.
• 12:30 US Challenger Job Cuts. Actual -5.9%.
• 13:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 337K.
• 15:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate -147B.
• 18:01 US 30-year Bond Auction.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

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