EUR/USD – Little Movement As German Consumer Confidence Shines

EUR/USD has looked listless all week long and we’re seeing more of the same on Wednesday, as the pair continues to trade in the mid-1.37 range. German Consumer Confidence continues to rise and posted its best showing in seven years. In the US, today’s highlight is New Home Sales. The markets are braced for a weaker reading than last month.

German GfK Consumer Confidence continues to rise, as the key indicator moved upwards for the fourth straight month. The indicator hit 8.5 points in January, its highest level since January 2007. The markets had expected another strong showing, with an estimate of 8.3 points. The excellent reading comes on the heels of year high. A strong German CPI release on Thursday could push up the euro.

Is the US housing sector experiencing a downturn? Recent US numbers have not looked sharp, and the weak numbers are being felt in the housing industry. Building Permits slid to a five-month low in January, dropping to 0.94 million. The estimate stood at 0.98 million. Existing Home Sales looked awful, dropping to 4.62 million in January, compared to 4.87 million a month earlier. This was well short of the estimate of 4.73 million, and the lowest reading from the key indicator since July 2012. The markets will be hoping for better news from New Home Sales, which will be released later on Wednesday.

EUR/USD for Wednesday, February 26, 2014

EUR/USD February 26 at 11:40 GMT

EUR/USD 1.3739 H: 1.37657 L: 1.3734

EUR/USD Technical

• EUR/USD is steady on Wednesday, continuing to show little movement.
• 1.3649 is providing strong support. The next support line is at 1.3585.
• 1.3786 is the next line of resistance. This line is not strong and could face pressure if the euro moves to higher ground. This is followed by 1.3893, which is protecting the 1.39 level.
• Current range: 1.3649 to 1.3786

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.3649, 1.3585, 1.3410, 1.3347 and 1.3255
• Above: 1.3786, 1.3893, 1.4000 and 1.4149.

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD ratio is almost unchanged on Wednesday, continuing the pattern we’ve seen since last week. This is consistent with the pair’s current movement, as the pair continues to show little movement. Short positions retain a strong majority, indicative of trader bias towards the dollar breaking out and moving higher against the euro.

The euro continues to drift, trading in the mid-1.37 range. EUR/USD is quiet in the European session.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

• 7:00 German GfK Consumer Climate. Exp. 8.3, actual 8.5 points.
• Tentative – German 30-year Bond Auction.
• 15:00 US New Home Sales. Exp. 406K.
• 15:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Exp. 1.1M.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

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