Gold Jumpy Ahead of Trump’s Congress Debut

Gold is showing little movement in the Tuesday session. In North American trade, the spot price for one ounce is $1256.54. On the release front, revised GDP remained at 1.9%, missing the estimate of 2.1%. The CB Consumer Confidence report jumped to 114.8, well above the estimate of 111.1 points. As well, President Donald Trump will address a joint session of Congress. On Wednesday, the US releases Manufacturing PMI.

As the US dollar has run into some turbulence, gold prices continue to move higher. Gold prices have risen 1.9% since Wednesday, and on Monday, the metal hit its highest level since November 2016.

It’s show time for Donald Trump later on Tuesday. The president delivers his first speech before Congress, and the speech could have huge ramifications for the financial markets. Since Trump’s stunning election upset, the stock markets are sharply higher, but the markets will be expecting some details about Trump’s economic agenda. Trump recently promised to unveil a “phenomenal” tax reform package and significant spending on infrastructure, but hasn’t provided any details. Tuesday’s speech marks a critical opportunity for the new administration, which is still trying to find its bearings after a rocky first month. If Trump fails to present specifics in terms of numbers or at least provide some timelines, market sentiment will likely sour and this could hurt the US dollar while sending gold sharply higher.

Trump Speech Could Make or Break the Market Rally

XAU/USD Fundamentals

Tuesday (February 28)

• 8:30 US Preliminary GDP. Estimate 2.1%. Actual 1.9%
• 8:30 US Goods Trade Balance. Estimate -66.0B
• 8:30 US Preliminary GDP Price Index. Estimate 2.1%
• 8:30 US Preliminary Wholesale Inventories. Estimate 0.5%.
• 9:00 US S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI. Estimate 5.3%
• 9:45 US Chicago PMI. Estimate 53.2
• 10:00 US CB Consumer Confidence. Estimate 111.1. Actual 114.8
• 10:00 US Richmond Manufacturing Index. Estimate 10
• 19:01 British BRC Shop Price Index
• 21:00 President Trump Speech

Upcoming Key Events

Wednesday (March 1)

• 10:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 56.2

*All release times are GMT

*Key events are in bold

XAU/USD for Tuesday, February 28, 2017

XAU/USD February 28 at 13:15 EST

Open: 1253.36 High: 1258.43 Low: 1250.23 Close: 1256.54

XAU/USD Technical

• XAU/USD was flat in the Asian session. In European trade, the pair posted small losses but then recovered. The pair has inched up in North American trade
• 1232 is providing support
• 1260 remains a weak resistance line
• Current range: 1232 to 1260

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1232, 1199, 1174 and 1146
• Above: 1260, 1285 and 1307

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

XAU/USD ratio is showing little movement in the Tuesday session. Currently, long positions have a majority (56%), indicative of trader bias towards XAU/USD continuing its rally.

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