GBP/USD – Pound Edges Higher on Stronger UK Sales Growth

The British pound has posted slight gains in the Tuesday session. In North American trade, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2760. On the release front, British CBI Realized Sales impressed with a gain of 12 points, crushing the estimate of 4 points. As well, the BoE released its Financial Stability report.

British Prime Minister Theresa May gambled and lost when she called a general election, as she squandered her majority in parliament. May has had to deal with domestic critics, some who have been blistering in their attacks on her poor performance in the election. With the Brexit talks finally underway, May has to deal with European leaders who are still fuming at Britain’s decision to depart the European Union. There was finally some good news on Monday for the embattled May, who reached an agreement with the DUP, a small Irish party, after weeks of negotiations. The DUP will not formally join the government, but has committed to support the government on its legislative agenda, Brexit and the budget. In return, May will provide Northern Ireland with an additional one billion pounds over the next two years. The deal should provide May with some breathing room in parliament, allowing her to shift gears from damage control and focus on the economy and the Brexit negotiations.

It’s report card on Thursday, as the US releases Final GDP for the first quarter. Preliminary GDP, which was released in May, came in at 1.2%, and this is the forecast for the upcoming GDP report. Recent economic data has been softer than expected, notably construction and manufacturing reports. US durable goods releases were weak in May. Core Durable Goods broke a streak of two straight declines, but the weak gain of 0.1% missed expectations. Durable Goods declined 1.1%, its sharpest decline since June 2016. The slowdown in orders of business equipment could weigh on second quarter growth. Last week, it was the turn of construction numbers to disappoint, as Housing Starts and Building Permits both missed expectations. Consumer spending has also been softer than expected, and if Final GDP falls short of the modest estimate of 1.2%, the dollar could respond with losses.

GBP/USD Fundamentals

Tuesday (June 27)

• 5:30 BoE Financial Stability Report
• 6:00 BoE Governor Mark Carney Speaks
• 6:00 British CBI Realized Sales. Estimate 4. Actual 12
• 9:00 US S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI. Estimate 5.9%. Actual 5.7%
• 10:00 US CB Consumer Confidence. Estimate 116.1. Actual 118.9
• 10:00 US Richmond Manufacturing Index. Estimate 4. Actual 7
• 11:15 US FOMC Member Patrick Harker Speaks
• 13:00 US Fed Chair Janet Yellen Speaks
• 17:30 US FOMC Member Neel Kashkari Speaks

Wednesday (June 28)

• 9:30 B0E Governor Mark Carney Speaks
• 10:00 US Pending Home Sales. Estimate 0.9%
• 10:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate -2.1M

*All release times are EDT

*Key events are in bold

GBP/USD for Tuesday, June 27, 2017

GBP/USD June 27 at 10:30 EDT

Open: 1.2723 High: 1.2780 Low: 1.2717 Close: 1.2761

GBP/USD Technical

• GBP/USD showed little movement in the Asian session. The pair lost ground but then recovered in European trade.  GBP/USD has posted small gains in the North American session
• 1.2706 is providing support
• 1.2865 is the next line of resistance

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1,.2706, 1.2571, 1.2401 and 1.2313
• Above: 1.2865, 1.2946 and 1.3058
• Current range: 1.2706 to 1.2865

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

GBP/USD ratio is unchanged in the Tuesday session. Currently, short positions have a majority (60%), indicative of trader bias towards GBP/USD reversing directions and moving lower.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.