Muted response to news of trade talk progress

China’s flexibility

China has reportedly given larger concessions on the topic of technology transfer, according to a Reuters report citing un-named officials, but there still remain a number of tough points for negotiation. Other area under discussion include cyber theft, intellectual property rights, services, currency, agriculture and non-tariff barriers to trade.

In an interview with the US press, US President Trump reiterated that he believed the US would do a “very good deal” with China. Meanwhile, a Trump official said there was no specific timeframe to conclude a deal, which could come any time between April and June.

US indices were trading slightly lower this morning though regional bourses were performing better. The Australian dollar was slightly better bid, rising 0.07% versus the US dollar to 0.7090. The FX pair has been struggling to get past the 100-day moving average resistance at 0.7158 this month.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Source: OANDA fxTrade

The Turkish delight that bites

US GDP to be marked lower

The revision to US Q4 GDP is expected to show a downgrade of growth to 2.4% y/y from 2.6% at the prior reading, according to the latest survey of economists. Remember this is now quite old data, delayed due to the US government shutdown, with the data for the first quarter already due on April 26.

Aside from the growth numbers, the data calendar features Euro-zone consumer confidence, business climate and economic sentiment for March (mostly with either a flat of downward bias, according to the surveys) together with the German CPI revision for the same month.

Fed speakers are out in force, with Quarles, Clarida, Williams and Bullard all on tap. I can’t imagine any of them detracting from the current stance of pause and review.

The full MarketPulse data calendar is available for viewing at https://www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/

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