Happy Holidays and the Week Ahead

We wish you and your family happy, healthy holidays and all the very best in 2022!

Markets

US – Should be quiet, focus may shift to who President Biden will nominate for the three vacancies on the Fed (including vice chair for supervision). There is no set timeframe on when Biden will make an announcement, but he is expected to make a decision soon.

Asia – No significant data ex-China
–       China Manf/Non-Manf PMIs Friday. Low prints lower equities
–       Evergrande, Kaisa and Xinyaun Real Estate $414 million debt payments due in the week ahead, first deadlines. NO payment, equities negative especially Hong Kong.

Europe – No Significant data or events
–       Russian GDP/CPI on Wednesday could boost prospects of a rate hike at next meeting (rate hike cycle could be nearing end)
–       German new Chancellor Olaf speaks on Friday

Commodities and Cryptos:
Oil – The first main event of the New Year is the January 4th meeting on output, which means we should hear some announced comments from OPEC+ members.
Gold– Should remain a steady trade, but could see some volatility if yields and dollar make moves from Omicron headlines
Bitcoin – No major developments on regulation, Web 3.0 or adoption are expected.  A Russian ban on crypto remains an open risk.
The Week Ahead

Sunday, Dec. 26

• Mastercard releases data on US Christmas sales.

Monday, Dec. 27

• Australian, Canadian and UK markets are closed for national holidays.

Economic Data/Events:

• China industrial profits
• Taiwan monitoring indicator
• Japan retail sales, department store sales
• South Korea retail sales, department store sales

Tuesday, Dec. 28

Economic Data/Events:

• API weekly report on US oil inventories
• Hong Kong trade
• Japan unemployment, industrial production
• Mexico international reserves

Wednesday, Dec. 29

Economic Data/Events:

• US wholesale inventories
• Russia unemployment, GDP
• Thailand capacity utilization, manufacturing production index
• EIA crude oil inventory report
• Genscape weekly crude inventory report for Europe’s ARA region

Thursday, Dec. 30

Economic Data/Events:

• US initial jobless claims
• Eurozone ECB publishes economic bulletin
• South Korea industrial production, cyclical leading index
• Spain CPI
• Thailand trade, forward contracts, foreign reserves, BoP
• India BoP

Friday, Dec. 31

• Germany’s new Chancellor Olaf Scholz and France’s President Emanuel Macron to provide New Years remarks

Economic Data/Events:

• China Dec Manufacturing PMI: 49.9e v 50.1 prior; Non-Manufacturing: 51.8e v 52.3 prior; BoP
• South Africa trade balance
• Australia private sector credit
• Singapore money supply
• Hong Kong money supply, budget balance
• India fiscal deficit, eight infrastructure industries

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