Week Ahead – All eyes on the jobs report

US

Wall Street returns after the Thanksgiving holiday and what a week we have in store. The jobs report on Friday is the obvious highlight, with Fed policymakers keen to see further signs of inflationary pressures easing and less tightness in the labour market.

There’s a whole host of other data due next week as well including the core PCE price index – the Fed’s preferred inflation measure – GDP, income, spending, jobless claims, and more. We’ll also hear from Fed policymakers throughout the week including Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday.

EU

An action-packed week for Europe, with a plethora of key economic data and ECB policymaker appearances. In the run-up to the ECB rate decision on 15 December, that commentary is going to provide crucial insight into which way the committee is leaning, with another 75 basis points currently heavily priced in. With that in mind, the flash CPI release stands out as the one to watch on Wednesday.

UK

The UK has repaired some of its tarnished reputation in recent weeks but the economy is still likely in recession and it won’t be an easy road back. There isn’t much data next week to support or refute that but there are appearances from various BoE policymakers that will be of interest.

Russia

A few economic numbers of note next week include GDP, retail sales, unemployment, real wages, and the manufacturing PMI. Unemployment is expected to tick higher again to 4.1% from its September low of 3.8%.

South Africa

The SARB continued its aggressive tightening cycle in November with another 75 basis point hike, taking the repo rate to 7%. The central bank expects inflation to remain above its 3-6% target range until the second quarter of next year and only return to the mid-point in the second quarter of 2024.

Next week brings the release of unemployment data on Tuesday.

Turkey

As expected, the CBRT cut rates by 1.5% in November and ended its easing cycle, leaving the policy rate at 9%. Next week its quarterly GDP and the manufacturing PMI on offer as traders look for clues as to the cost of the monetary policy experiment on the economy.

Switzerland

A data-heavy week that includes the PMI survey and inflation on Thursday – which the SNB has repeatedly stressed is too high – GDP on Tuesday, and KOF and ZEW surveys on Wednesday. 

China

Official Chinese manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs for November will be released on Wednesday as well as the Caixin Manufacturing PMI.  As these figures have been fluctuating above and below the 50-the threshold separating contraction from expansion for the past few months, they suggest that the Chinese economy is still hovering between contraction and expansion.

However, the long-term positive fundamentals of the Chinese economy remain unchanged. Industrial profits figures are also released over the weekend.

India

A number of interesting economic releases next week including GDP on Wednesday and the manufacturing PMI on Thursday.

Australia & New Zealand

Inflation in Australia and New Zealand remains high, and the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Philip Lowe, has said in a speech that he is determined to ensure that the current high inflation is temporary, while the RBA is expected to raise interest rates further in the future. 

The RBNZ’s 23 November central bank rate meeting hawkishly raised rates by 75 basis points to 4.25% to continue the fight against inflation, and the market now expects the RBNZ’s terminal rate may rise to 4.75%.   

Next week, the focus will be on Australian retail sales and CPI for October on Monday and the speech by the RBA Governor Philip Lowe on Wednesday. Other data released throughout the week will also be of interest.

Japan

Coming up next week is data on unemployment, retail sales, and industrial production for October as well as the latest manufacturing PMI for November. 

Singapore

At the 29th APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting on 17 November, President Xi Jinping met with Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong in Bangkok. The China-Singapore relationship is forward-looking, strategic, and exemplary, Xi said.

Lee Hsien Loong said Singapore sees China’s development as positive, wishes the GDI well, and will explore ways to participate. Both countries expressed their willingness to continue to deepen their cooperative relationship and work together to promote new progress in the all-around partnership between the two countries as they move with the times.

According to Caixin Global, on 22 November, Singapore police said it was investigating Binance. This comes after the Monetary Authority of Singapore noted that Binance was being investigated as it may have violated the Payment Services Act.

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