RBA September Quarterly Bulletin

RBA has published its quarterly bulletin which gives us a few insights on the methodology they use for their own economic forecasting.

A few interesting segments –

“Chinese Urban Residential Construction” (Page 21 – 26)

Construction would peak in 2023, at a level approximately 25 per cent above 2011 levels. Alternatively, a lower path can be projected by assuming an urbanisation path more in line with the United Nations’ urbanisation projections as they stood in 2009, which were significantly below the current vintage. In this case, the peak in residential construction is basically at hand.

“Financial Regulation and Australian Dollar Liquid Assets” (Page 43 – 52)

It is interesting to note that demand for Australian denominated High Quality Liquid Assets (HQLA) has increased significantly due to the global crisis. There are also speculations that People’s Bank of China (PBOC) will also buy into these HQLAs, thus driving prices even higher.

“The Pricing of Crude Oil” (Page 65 to 74)

RBA has provided a chart overlay between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent Crude (BCO), prices have been tracking each other rather well until 2011. A very good read for BCO CFD traders with OANDA.

For full publication by RBA – Click here

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