WTI Crude – 97.5 Capping Gains Despite Strong Bullish Sentiment

Hourly Chart

And the numbers are in! Latest inventory numbers from Department of Energy showed a first decline in Crude Stocks in 11 weeks, and what a decline it was – 5.59 million barrels in total, more than 11 times than what analysts expected. However, WTI prices did not rise despite this stronger implied demand, as prices were already highly inflated following API’s numbers on Tuesday and bullish hysteria arising from the Keystone pipeline announcement. Hence, any number that is below 12.0 million was expected to illicit a bearish response, and in this regard WTI prices reacted just as we expected.

What is not expected is how prices actually recovered after the post DOE numbers fall, as risk appetite was actually bearish during the period with S&P 500 falling heavily during the same time. Price even managed to push beyond the previous swing high, hitting a new high of 97.47, underlining the strong bullish sentiment of WTI right now.

Daily Chart

However, bulls may find it hard to find further headway with 97.5 resistance directly overhead right now. Furthermore, Stochastic readings of both Daily Chart and Hourly Chart are within the Overbought region, favoring a bearish pullback. Also, there are hints that bulls may have overreacted to the Keystone pipeline news as mentioned in our analysis yesterday, increasing the likelihood of a strong bearish backlash especially if risk appetite remain bearish in the next few days. Nonetheless, should prices manage to break 97.5, there is a real possibility of push towards 99.0, but beyond 99.0 will be difficult to contemplate within the next few trading days with QE Taper uncertainty looming 2 weeks later.

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