AUD/USD – Edges Lower After Weak Aussie Data

The Australian dollar has started the trading week with slight losses, as AUD/USD trades in the low-0.90 range in Monday trading. Australian ANZ Job Advertisements looked sluggish, dropping to a three-month low. In the US, it’s a quiet start to the week. Monday’s only event is a speech by FOMC Member James Bullard on monetary policy in St. Louis. On Friday, US releases impressed, as Non-Farm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate were sharp, while UoM Preliminary Consumer Sentiment hit a five-month high.

Australian data continues to disappoint. Last week, GDP and Trade Balance fell short of their estimates, and the news did not improve on Monday, as ANZ Job Advertisements declined by 0.8%. The employment indicator has posted just one gain since April, pointing to a weak employment market. Meanwhile, Chinese Trade Balance looked very sharp, posting a surplus of 33.8 billion dollars, a multi-year high. Chinese CPI, which is released each month, dropped to 3.0%, matching the forecast. Analysts who follow the Aussie closely monitor key Chinese data, as China is Australia’s number one trading partner, and Chinese numbers often impact on the movement of AUD/USD.

In the US, employment numbers continue to impress. After another strong Unemployment Claims release, Non-Farm Payrolls was almost unchanged, coming in at 203 thousand. This was well above the estimate of 180 thousand. The Unemployment Rate dropped from 7.3% to 7.0%, beating the estimate of 7.2%. The strong numbers are sure to increase the pressure on the Fed to taper QE when its meets later in December. The Fed has said that a stronger employment picture is a prerequisite to tapering, and last week’s numbers certainly increase the possibility of the Fed taking action at its December policy meeting.

AUD/USD for Monday, December 9, 2013

AUD/USD December 9 at 13:40 GMT

AUD/USD 0.9087 H: 0.9130 L: 0.9071

AUD/USD Technical

• AUD/USD has edged lower in Monday trading. The pair dropped below the 0.91 line late in the Asian session.
• The pair is receiving support at the key level of 0.9000. This is followed by support at 0.8893.
• On the upside, 0.9119 is providing resistance. This line has already seen action on Monday and could face further pressure during the day. This is followed by a resistance line at 0.9229.
• Current range: 0.9000 to 0.9119

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 0.9000, 0.8893, 0.8735 and 0.8658
• Above: 0.9119, 0.9200, 0.9305, 0.9400 and 0.9508

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

AUD/USD ratio is showing little change in Monday trading. This is reflected in the current movement of the pair, which has not shown significant movement on Monday. The ratio is made up of a substantial majority of long positions, reflecting a trader bias towards the Australian dollar reversing directions and moving to higher ground.

The Australian dollar has started off the new trading week in quiet fashion, trading slightly below the 0.91 line. With no economic data being released on Monday out of the US, we can expect an uneventful North American session for AUD/USD.

AUD/USD Fundamentals

• 00:30 Australian ANZ Job Advertisements. Actual -0.8%.
•  18:05 US FOMC Member James Bullard Speaks.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

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