USD/JPY – Yen Flat Ahead of BOJ Decision

USD/JPY has started off the new week quietly, with the pair trading in the low-103 range in Monday’s European session. In economic news, Japanese Leading Indicators missed the estimate, dropping to a six-month low. Later in the day, we’ll get a look at Current Account. The sole US event of the day is Consumer Credit.

On Friday, all eyes were on US Non-Farm Payrolls, one of the most important economic indicators. The indicator rose nicely last in March, climbing to 192 thousand, compared to 175 thousand a month earlier. However, the markets were looking for more, with the estimate standing at 199 thousand. The Unemployment Rate also fell short of the estimate, as it remained unchanged at 6.7%. Although these numbers were not as strong as hoped, the Federal Reserve is expected to continue trimming QE when it meets at the end of April.

In Japan, the BOJ will conclude its policy meeting and issue a monetary policy statement early on Tuesday. The markets are not expecting the BOJ to change its current annual increase of 60-70 trillion yen. With deflation largely under control, the most pressing economic issue facing the Abe government is the huge debt. The government is expected to implement measures to boost growth in the summer, so we could see the BOJ add monetary stimulus at that time.

USD/JPY for Monday, April 7, 2014

USD/JPY April 7 at 13:10 GMT

USD/JPY 103.14 H: 103.34 L: 103.00

USD/JPY Technical

• USD/JPY is showing little movement on Monday, as the pair continues to trade above the 103 line.
• 103.30 has switched to a resistance following the yen’s improvement on Friday. This is a weak line which could see action during the day. This is followed by 104.17.
• On the downside, 102.53 is providing support. The next support line is 101.19.
• Current range: 102.53 to 103.30

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 102.53, 101.19, 100.00 and 99.57
• Above: 103.30, 104.17, 105.70, 106.85 and 107.80.

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/JPY ratio is pointing to gains in long positions in Monday trading. This is not consistent with the movement of the pair, as the yen has recorded slight losses. The ratio now has a slight majority of long positions, indicating a slight trader bias towards the dollar moving higher.

USD/JPY has started out the week quietly and the pair is steady in the European session.

USD/JPY Fundamentals

• 5:00 Japanese Leading Indicators. Estimate 114.2%. Actual 108.5%.
• 19:00 US Consumer Credit. Estimate 14.1B.
• 23:50 Japanese Current Account. Estimate -0.04T.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

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