EUR/USD – Slight Gains As Euro Pushes Above 1.38

EUR/USD is showing limited movement in Tuesday trade, as the pair sticks close to the 1.38 line. It’s been a quiet week so far, as the European markets were closed on Monday for the Easter break. In economic news, the only Eurozone release today is the Consumer Confidence. Tuesday’s key event in the US is Existing Home Sales. The indicator has been on a downward spiral, and this is expected to continue in the March release.

US releases ended the week on a high note, as employment and manufacturing numbers were strong. The all-important Unemployment Claims was up slightly to 304 thousand, but had no trouble beating the estimate of 316 thousand. With the Federal Reserve planning another trim to its QE program at the end of the month and speculation rising about a possible interest rate increase next year, every employment release is under the market microscope. Meanwhile, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index soared to 16.6 points, its best showing since September. This was well above the estimate of 9.6 points.

The ongoing crisis in Ukraine hasn’t affected the markets so far, but if the tense situation deteriorates that could quickly change. Russian President Putin has threatened to act on his “right” to invade Ukraine, and has steeply raised the price that Ukraine must pay for its gas supplies. Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk blasted the move as “economic aggression” and said his country must prepare for a complete cutoff of Russian gas. Meanwhile, US vice-president Joe Biden is in Kiev in a show of support for Ukraine, and the US has said it will increase sanctions if no progress is made in resolving the crisis.

EUR/USD for Tuesday, April 22, 2014

EUR/USD April 22 at 10:50 GMT

EUR/USD 1.3818 H: 1.3821 L: 1.3785

EUR/USD Technical

• EUR/USD has posted modest gains in Tuesday trade.
• 1.3786 continues to provide support. 1.3649 is a stronger support level.
• 1.3893 is providing strong resistance. This is followed by the key level of 1.40.
• Current range: 1.3786 to 1.3893

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.3786, 1.3649, 1.3585, 1.3410 and 1.3335
• Above: 1.3893, 1.4000, 1.4149 and 1.4307

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD ratio is made up of short positions, indicative of the dollar moving higher.

EUR/USD has moved back above the 1.38 line. The pair has posted modest gains in the European session.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

• 13:00 US HPI. Estimate 0.6%.
• 14:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence. Estimate -9 points.
• 14:00 US Existing Home Sales. Estimate 4.57M.
•  14:00 US Richmond Manufacturing Index. Estimate 0 points.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

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