AUD/USD – Unchanged After Weak PPI

AUD/USD is showing little movement on Friday, as the pair trades in the mid-0.78 range in the European session. Taking a look at today’s releases, Australian PPI dipped lower to 0.1%. Australian Private Sector Credit matched the forecast with a 0.5% gain. In the US, today’s major events are Advance GDP and UoM Consumer Sentiment.

Australian inflation remains at low levels. The Producer Price Index edged down to 0.1%, short of the forecast of 0.3%. Earlier in the week, Australian CPI, the primary gauge of consumer inflation, dropped to just 0.2% in Q4, shy of the forecast of 0.3%. This was the index’s weakest gain in two years. However, there was much better news from Trimmed Mean CPI, which posted a strong gain of 0.7%, beating the estimate of 0.5%.

US key numbers were a mix on Thursday. This was underscored by Unemployment Claims, which plunged to 265 thousand, down from 307 thousand a week earlier. This marked the indicator’s lowest level since April 2000. The news was not as positive from Pending Home Sales, which declined 3.7%, its worst reading in a year.

The Federal Reserve reiterated in its policy statement on Wednesday that it would be “patient” regarding the timeline for a raise in interest rates, which have been close to zero since 2008. However, the Fed also noted that the US economy was expanding at a “solid pace” thanks to the robust labor market. The Fed is widely expected to raise rates sometime during the year, so the Fed rate watch is sure to continue as the markets look for clues as to when the Fed will make a move.

AUD/USD for Friday, January 30, 2015

AUD/USD January 30 at 12:10 GMT

AUD/USD 0.7769 H: 0.7797 L: 0.7731

AUD/USD Technical

• AUD/USD has shown little movement on Friday. The pair continues to put pressure on resistance at 0.7799.
• 0.7799 is a weak resistance line. 0.7904 is stronger.
• 0.7684 is an immediate support level.
• Current range: 0.7684 to 0.7799

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 0.7684, 0.7582, 0.7403 and 0.7265
• Above: 0.7799, 0.7904, 0.8081, 0.8150 and 0.8214

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

AUD/USD ratio is pointing to gains in short positions on Friday. This is consistent with the movement of the pair, as the Aussie has posted very small losses. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards AUD/USD moving higher.

AUD/USD Fundamentals

• 00:30 Australian PPI. Estimate 0.3%. Actual 0.1%.
• 00:30 Australian Private Sector Credit. Estimate 0.5%. Actual 0.5%.
• 13:30 US Advance GDP. Estimate 3.0%.
• 13:30 US Advance GDP Price Index. Estimate 0.9%.
• 13:30 US Employment Cost Index. Estimate 0.6%.
• 14:45 US Chicago PMI. Estimate 57.7 points.
• 15:00 US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 98.5 points.
• 15:00 US Revised UoM Inflation Expectations.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

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