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How Likely is a Brexit?

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The Number Cruncher Politics Referendum Forecast offers a 24 percent chance of Britain voting to leave the EU. Prime Minister David Cameron’s recent woes over his tax affairs and the sale of the country’s largest steel plant don’t seem to have translated into a shift in the polls. And the IMF has rowed in behind Cameron, warning of “severe” damage to the world economy from a Brexit. Jeremy Corbyn, the leader of the opposition Labour Party, will on Thursday offer somewhat lukewarm support for membership.

However, since the NCP number was generated, the Electoral Commission ruled on which of the rival “Leave” organisations would be the lead campaign. If that ends the damaging infighting on that side of the argument, it could lead to a more consistent message.

Bloomberg

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Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Former Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary.

His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News.

Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
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