Euro Could Drop 10% on Le Pen French Victory

The euro could fall swiftly below parity with the dollar and France’s borrowing costs soar to 2 percent more than their German equivalents if far-right leader Marine Le Pen won the French presidency in May, according to U.S. bank JPMorgan.

In a note to clients dated Friday but sent to media on Monday, analysts from the bank discussed various scenarios after a Le Pen victory in April and May.

“Euro and oil have decent downside on a Le Pen victory: euro could fall about 10 cents to about $0.98 over a few weeks and oil could decline by 5-10 percent,” the note said.

“In the remote scenario of a Le Pen Presidency with supportive government and parliament, 10-year Bunds could approach 0 basis points and 10-year France-Germany (yield spread) 200 basis points.”

via Kitco

Content is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please access the RSS feed or contact us at info@marketpulse.com. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2023 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.