Gold Slips to 4-Week Lows on March Hike Expectations

Gold continues to lose ground on Tuesday, continuing the downward movement we saw on Monday. In North American trade, the spot price for one ounce is $1217.35. Gold dropped to a low of $1215.97 earlier in the day, its lowest level since February 3. The metal has now dropped 2.9 percent since February 27. On the release front, the US trade deficit jumped to $48.5 billion, higher than the estimate of $47.0 billion. On Wednesday, the US releases ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ahead of the official Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday.

Donald Trump has been in office for over a month but still continues to create controversy on an almost basis, much to the consternation of the markets. Still, the US dollar remains strong, buoyed by a strong economy and the increasing likelihood of a rate hike at the upcoming Fed policy meeting on March 15. The likelihood of a March hike has jumped to 84%, according to the CME group, compared to 33% just a week ago. Why the huge jump in odds? One reason is that Fed policymakers have sent out strong hints that the Fed is leaning towards raising rates next week. Earlier in the year, the Fed sent out signals that it would stay on the sidelines until it had a clearer picture of Trump’s economic agenda, such as an outline of tax reform or fiscal spending plans. That has changed, as the Fed appears poised to move ahead despite the lack of any details about the administration’s economic policy. This week’s job numbers will be critically important, as strong numbers will likely boost the odds of a March move as well as push the greenback to higher levels.

XAU/USD Fundamentals

Tuesday (March 7)

• 8:30 US Trade Balance. Estimate -47.0B. Actual -48.5B
• 10:00 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism. Estimate 57.1
• 15:00 US Consumer Credit. Estimate 19.1B

Wednesday (March 8)

• 8:15 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change. Estimate 184K
• 15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories

*All release times are GMT

*Key events are in bold

XAU/USD for Tuesday, March 7, 2017

XAU/USD March 7 at 11:55 EST

Open: 1225.99 High: 1227.14 Low: 1215.97 Close: 1217.35

XAU/USD Technical

• XAU/USD was flat in the Asian session. The pair has posted slight losses in the European and North American sessions
• 1199 is providing support
• 1232 is the next line of resistance
• Current range: 1199 to 1232

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1199, 1174 and 1146
• Above: 1232, 1260, 1285 and 1307

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

XAU/USD ratio is unchanged this week. Currently, long positions have a majority (66%), indicative of trader bias towards XAU/USD reversing directions and moving upwards.

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