SocGen Has 5 Brexit Scenarios

With Brexit talks formally starting on Monday, the coming weeks and months are likely to offer the world a glimpse of what Britain’s EU exit will finally look like.

Before the general election, it seemed fairly obvious that Prime Minister Theresa May was only considering one type of Brexit — a hard exit including tightly controlled immigration but an exit from the European Single Market.

However, after May’s failure to win a majority in the House of Commons — which is set to lead to a minority Conservative government propped up by the DUP — it is possible that there may be a moderating of stance on leaving the EU, with senior figures in the government, including Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond pushing for a less aggressive approach.

According to new research from French lender Societe Generale, hard Brexit remains by far the most likely outcome — with a 70% probability — but there are four other possible scenarios that could play out in the next 18 months of negotiations.

“It is tempting to talk up the chances of a soft Brexit following the humbling of May in the election, but to us a hard Brexit is still much the most likely outcome,” SocGen’s Brian Hilliard wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday.

The five possible Brexit scenarios, including the basic hard Brexit, are:

1. Hard Brexit
2. Soft Brexit
3. Cliff edge Brexit
4. No Brexit
5. “Back to the drawing board”

For the full scenarios visit Business Insider

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