USD/CAD – Canadian Dollar Steady, US Inflation Data Next

The Canadian dollar has edged higher in the Tuesday session. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2713, down 0.16% on the day. On the release front, there are no Canadian indicators on the schedule. Central bankers will attend an ECB event in Frankfurt, with Fed Chair Janet Yellen participating in a panel discussion. The US will release PPI reports, which are expected to show very small gains. Wednesday promises to be busy, with the US releasing CPI and retail sales reports.

US President Trump is wrapping up his tour of Asian Pacific countries, and he reiterated his message of “America first”. This protectionist stance could signal trouble for Canada and Mexico, as Trump has vowed to renegotiate the NAFTA free trade agreement. On his Asian trip, Trump reiterated that he favors bilateral trade agreements rather than multilateral arrangements. Negotiators from the three countries are meeting for another round of talks on Wednesday, and by all accounts, the talks are progressing slowly. NAFTA covers more than $1 trillion a year in trade, and if the agreement is not renegotiated, the Canadian economy will be adversely affected, and the Canadian dollar would likely lose ground against the greenback.

Investors are keeping close eye on developments with President Trump’s tax proposal. There are some differences in the House and Senate bills, with some Republicans opposed to eliminating federal deductions of state and local taxes. The Republicans hope to present Trump with a new tax code by the end of the year, but with Democrats putting up fierce resistance, it’s unclear whether the bill will have enough votes to get through Congress. If the proposal is successful, the resulting economic growth could lead to higher interest rates, which would likely boost the US dollar against other currencies.

USD/CAD Fundamentals 

Tuesday (November 14)

• 5:00 US Federal Chair Janet Yellen Speaks
• 8:30 US PPI. Estimate 0.1%
• 8:30 US Core PPI. Estimate 0.2%

Wednesday (November 15)

• 8:30 US CPI. Estimate 0.1%
• 8:30 US Core CPI. Estimate 0.2%
• 8:30 US Retail Sales. Estimate 0.2%
• 8:30 US Core Retail Sales. Estimate 0.0%
• 8:30 US Empire State Manufacturing Index. Estimate 25.3

*All release times are GMT

*Key events are in bold

USD/CAD for Tuesday, November 14, 2017

USD/CAD, November 14 at 7:50 EDT

Open: 1.2733 High: 1.2758 Low: 1.2725 Close: 1.2716

USD/CAD Technical

USD/CAD was flat in the Asian session and has edged lower in European trade

• 1.2701 remains a weak support line
• 1.2778 is the next line of resistance
• Current range: 1.2701 to 1.2778

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.2701, 1.2598, 1.2441 and 1.2357
• Above: 1.2778, 1.2943 and 1.3032

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio is unchanged in the Tuesday session. Currently, long positions have a majority (57%), indicative of trader bias towards USD/CAD continuing to move higher.

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