EUR/USD – lack of data leaves euro treading water

EUR/USD has edged lower in the Tuesday session, after posting modest gains on Monday. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1675, down 0.24% on the day. It’s a quiet day on the release front, with no eurozone events. In the U.S, the key event is CB Consumer Confidence, which is expected to drop to 127.6 points. On Wednesday, the U.S releases durable goods reports.

The euro continues to have a quiet week, but trade tensions continue to simmer between the U.S and its trading partners. Although the headlines have been dominated by the trade between the U.S and China, the European Union has also been drawn into the frey. On Friday, the EU slapped 25% tariffs on $3.3 billion of U.S goods. This move was in response to U.S tariffs on EU steel and aluminum imports. However, President Trump has more cards up his sleeves and has threatened to impose 20% tariffs on EU vehicles. Such a move could take a toll on German auto giants Daimler and BMW and could sour investors on the euro. The EU has enough on its plate without a trade war with the U.S, and has launched a complaint over the U.S tariffs with the World Trade Organization. Still, the EU has not shied away from retaliatory moves, with EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker saying that the EU’s response would be “clear but measured”. The U.S Treasury Department is expected to announce restrictions on Chinese investment in the U.S, as part of the government’s efforts to curtail alleged intellectual property theft by the Chinese. This would mark a significant escalation of the trade battle with China, and a strong Chinese response could shake up the currency markets.

There is widespread concern that recent protectionist moves could hamper global growth and financial stability. This was the message on Sunday from the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), which acts as an umbrella group for some 60 central banks. The BIS also warned that the escalating trade war could have negative side effects on the currency markets. At the same time, the BIS expressed support for the Federal Reserve raising interest rates gradually and for the ECB heading towards normalization as it winds up its massive asset program.

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EUR/USD Fundamentals

Tuesday (June 26)

• 9:00 US S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI. Estimate 6.9%
• 10:00 US CB Consumer Confidence. Estimate 127.6
• 10:00 US Richmond Manufacturing Index. Estimate 15
• 13:00 US FOMC Member Rafael Bostic Speaks

Wednesday (June 27)

• 8:30 US Core Durable Goods Orders. Estimate 0.5%
• 8:30 US Durable Goods Orders. Estimate -0.9%

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

EUR/USD for Tuesday, June 26, 2018

EUR/USD for June 26 at 4:30 DST

Open: 1.1704 High: 1.1721 Low: 1.1677 Close: 1.1675

EUR/USD Technical

EUR/USD inched higher in the Asian session. The pair has reversed directions in European trade and headed lower

• 1.1637 is providing support
• 1.1728 is the next resistance line

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.1637, 1.1553, 1.1434 and 1.1312
• Above: 1.1728, 1.1829 and 1.1910
• Current range: 1.1637 to 1.1728

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