EUR/USD – Euro slightly lower as eurozone industrial production misses mark

EUR/USD has edged lower in the Wednesday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1576, down 0.24% on the day. On the release front, Eurozone industrial production declined 0.8%, missing the estimate of -0.5%. In the U.S, PPI and Core PPI are both expected to rise to 0.2%. On Thursday, Germany releases CPI and the ECB sets its monthly interest rate, which is expected to remain pegged at 0.00%. The U.S will publish CPI as well as unemployment claims.

The ECB is expected to hold rates at 0.00% on Thursday, so the markets will be focusing on the rate announcement and Mario Draghi’s press conference. The Bank is expected to lower its growth forecast due to weaker global growth and could spell out downside risks to growth. Inflation is expected to remain steady at 1.8% in 2018 in 2019, which means that the ECB is on track to wind up its asset-purchase program in December.

The U.S-China trade spat has been in the headlines for months, with the U.S slapping tariffs on China and the latter responding in kind. Will President Trump ratchet up the trade war between the world’s two largest economies? Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese tariffs, and the time period for public consultations ended last week, which means that Trump is free to announce another round of tariffs at any time. Despite fears that the trade war could trigger a global recession, trade between the U.S and China actually increased in August. The dollar has benefited from the global trade war, and further tariffs against China could boost the greenback against its major rivals, including the euro.

CAD rallies on Nafta optimism

Channel one’s confidence

EUR/USD Fundamentals

Wednesday (September 12)

• 4:00 Italian Industrial Production. Estimate -0.4%. Actual -1.8%
• 5:00 Eurozone Industrial Production. Estimate -0.5%. Actual -0.8%
• 5:00 Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate. Estimate 10.8%. Actual 10.7%
• 5:35 German 30-year Bond Auction. Estimate 1.10/2.0
• 8:30 US PPI. Estimate 0.3%
• 8:30 US Core PPI. Estimate 0.2%
• 10:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate -1.3M
• 12:45 US FOMC Member Lael Brainard
• 13:01 US 10-year Bond Auction
• 14:00 US Beige Book

Thursday (September 13)

• 2:00 German Final CPI. Estimate 0.1%
• 2:45 French Final CPI. Estimate 0.5%
• 7:45 ECB Main Refinancing Rate. Estimate 0.00%
• 8:30 ECB Press Conference
• 8:30 US CPI. Estimate 0.3%
• 8:30 US Core CPI. Estimate 0.2%
• 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 210K
• 10:00 US FOMC Member Randal Quarles Speaks
• 10:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate 65B
• 13:01 30-year Bond Auction
• 13:15 US FOMC Member Raphael Bostic Speaks
• 14:00 US Federal Budget Balance. Estimate -169.8B

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

EUR/USD for Wednesday, September 12, 2018

EUR/USD for September 12 at 7:15 DST

Open: 1.1604 High: 1.1606 Low: 1.1570 Close: 1.1576

EUR/USD Technical

EUR/USD ticked lower in the Asian session. In the European session, the pair posted small losses but has recovered

• 1.1553 is providing support
• 1.1637 is the next resistance line

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.1553, 1.1434 and 1.1312
• Above: 1.1637, 1.1718, 1.1840 and 1.1961
• Current range: 1.1553 to 1.1637

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