USD/CAD – Canadian dollar unchanged, investors eye U.S.-China talks

USD/CAD is showing little movement in the Tuesday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.3262, up 0.01% on the day. On the release front, there are no Canadian releases until Thursday. The U.S. releases CB Consumer Confidence, which is expected to drop to 125.0 points. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will publish its monthly rate statement.

The U.S.-China trade spat will be back in the headlines this week, as Chinese and U.S. officials will hold a second round of talks on Wednesday and Thursday. The trade tensions between the two largest economies in the world has taken a toll on the Canadian economy, which is heavily reliant on exports. On Monday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he expects significant progress in the talks, but warned that the sides would have to tackle “complicated issues”. Tensions between China and the U.S. have escalated in recent weeks, with the U.S. Justice Department filing criminal charges against Huawei, a Chinese technology company. The U.S. is also trying to extradite a senior Huawei executive from Canada, which has caused a serious diplomatic crisis between Canada and China.

How many times will the Fed raise rates in 2019? The answer varies, depending on who you ask. The markets are not expecting any increases, while the Federal Reserve continues to stick with a forecast of two hikes. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has also weighed in, saying that it expects further rates increases this year. The CBO made the forecast in its 10-year outlook update, but did not specify how many hikes it expects. The CBO report projected growth of 2.3% for the U.S economy in 2019, matching the forecast of the Federal Reserve.

US lower as Huawei charges threaten trade talks

USD/CAD Fundamentals

Tuesday (January 29)

• 9:00 U.S S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI. Estimate 5.0%
• 10:00 US CB Consumer Confidence. Estimate 125.0

Wednesday (January 30)

• 8:15 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change. Estimate 170K
• 14:00 US FOMC Statement
• 14:00 US Federal Funds Rate. Estimate <2.50%
• 14:30 US FOMC Press Conference

*All release times are EST

*Key events are in bold

USD/CAD for Tuesday, January 29, 2019

USD/CAD, January 29 at 8:25 EST

Open: 1.3260 High: 1.3279 Low: 1.3245 Close: 1.3262

USD/CAD Technical

USD/CAD edged higher in the Asian session but then gave up these gains. The pair is showing little movement in European trade

• 1.3200 is providing support
• 1.3290 is the next resistance line
• Current range: 1.3200 to 1.3290

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.3200, 1.3125 and 1.3049
• Above: 1.3290, 1.3383, 1.3445 and 1.3552

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