EUR/USD – Euro under pressure, investors eye U.S. durable goods orders

EUR/USD has ticked lower on Tuesday. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1205, down 0.08% on the day. On the release front, the sole eurozone event is PPI, which dipped to 0.1%, shy of the estimate of 0.2%. In the U.S., core durable goods orders is expected to improve to 0.3%, while durable goods orders is forecast to plunge 1.1%. On Wednesday, Germany and the eurozone post services PMIs, and the eurozone releases retail sales. The U.S. will publish ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and ADP nonfarm payrolls.

The global trading war has dampened economic activity, weighing on manufacturing sectors across the world. Germany and the eurozone have also been hit, in particular the German automotive industry. It came as no surprise that German and eurozone manufacturing PMIs disappointed in March, with readings pointing to contraction. The German reading dropped to 44.1, losing ground for an eighth straight month. This reading was the lowest since 2012. The all-eurozone release has also been steadily falling, pointing to weakness in the manufacturing sector.

The euro held its own on Monday, ignoring the weak manufacturing numbers. Meanwhile, there was better news out of China’s manufacturing industry. Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI didn’t sparkle, but improved to 50.8 and easily beat the estimate of 50.1 points. Investors cheered as the indicator climbed to an 8-month high, after posting three successive releases indicating contraction. The Chinese economy has been hit hard by the trade war with the U.S., and a piece of good news was enough to raise the confidence levels of investors.

It’s all about China

EUR/USD Fundamentals

Tuesday (April 2)

• 3:00 Spanish Unemployment Change. Estimate -28.5K. Actual -34.0K
  
• 5:00 Eurozone PPI. Estimate 0.2%. Actual 0.1%
• 8:30 US Core Durable Goods Orders. Estimate 0.3%
• 8:30 US Durable Goods Orders. Estimate -1.1%
• All Day – U.S. Total Vehicles Sales. Estimate 16.7M

Wednesday (April 3)

• 3:55 German Final Services PMI. Estimate 54.9
• 4:00 Eurozone Final Services PMI. Estimate 52.7
• 5:00 Eurozone Retail Sales. Estimate 0.2%
• 8:15 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change. Estimate 184K
• 10:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 58.1

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

EUR/USD for Tuesday, April 2, 2019

EUR/USD for April 2 at 5:55 DST

Open: 1.1213 High: 1.1213 Low: 1.1190 Close: 1.1205

EUR/USD Technical

EUR/USD has posted slight gains in the Asian session and is showing limited movement in European trade

• 1.1120 is providing support
• 1.1212 is fluid. Currently, it is a weak resistance line
• Current range: 1.1120 to 1.1212

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.1120, 1.1046 and 1.0951
• Above: 1.1212, 1.1300, 1.1434 and 1.1553

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