USD/JPY – Japanese yen subdued at 110, GDP beats forecast

USD/JPY is unchanged in Monday trade. In the North American session, the pair is trading at 109.98, up 0.01% on the day. The week kicked off with Japanese Preliminary GDP for Q1, which came in at 0.5%. This easily beat the estimate of -0.1%. Final GDP in Q4 also posted a gain of 0.4%. There are no data releases out of the U.S. On Tuesday, the  U.S. releases existing home sales, while the Japan will post Core Machinery Orders and trade balance.

U.S. numbers impressed late in the week, and the positive news was spread across the economy. The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index jumped to 16.6, up from 8.5 a month earlier. Unemployment claims dropped to 212 thousand, marking a 4-week high. The week ended with a sizzling release from UoM Consumer Sentiment, which climbed to 102.4, its highest level in 15 years.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will speak at an event on Monday, and there are a dozen Fed speakers at various venues during the week. Still, investors don’t expect to hear anything new from the Fed, which has said that the next rate move could be in either direction. The markets have priced in a rate cut later this year, and some analysts are predicting a second rate cut before 2020. This could take dampen enthusiasm for the strong U.S. dollar, as rate cuts would make the greenback less appealing to investors

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USD/JPY Fundamentals

Sunday (May 19)

• 19:50 Japanese Preliminary GDP. Estimate -0.1%. Actual 0.5%
• 19:50 Japanese Preliminary GDP Price Index. Estimate 0.2%. Actual 0.2%

Monday (May 20)

• 13:05 US FOMC Member Clarida Speaks
• 19:00 US Federal Reserve Chair Powell Speaks

Tuesday (May 21)

• 10:00 US Existing Home Sales. Estimate 5.35M
• 19:50 Japanese Core Machinery Orders. Estimate 0.0%
• 19:50 Japanese Trade Balance. Estimate -0.12T

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

USD/JPY for Monday, May 20, 2019

USD/JPY May 15 at 11:40 DST

Open: 109.97 High: 110.00 Low: 109.93 Close: 109.98

USD/JPY Technical

USD/JPY posted slight gains in Asian trade. The pair edged lower in the European session and is showing limited movement in North American trade

• 109.35 is providing support
• 110.40 is the next resistance line
• Current range: 109.35 to 110.40

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 109.35, 108.70, 108.10 and 107.50
• Above: 110.40, 111.15 and 112.40

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