New Zealand dollar slide continues

The New Zealand dollar has recorded losses for a third straight day. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.7212, down 0.33% on the day.

ANZ Commodity Price Index rises

The ANZ Commodity Price Index climbed 1.3% in May, marking an eighth consecutive rise. The index rose to a record level, as commodity prices rose in all major categories. The rise in commodities this year is in sharp contrast to 2020, when the Covid pandemic caused a sharp downturn in the global economy. This was reflected in a sharp fall in commodity prices, as the Commodity Price Index recorded declines throughout most of 2020.

As Covid rates fall, major economies have been reopening, and improving economic conditions have led to speculation that central banks may respond by tightening policy. The Bank of Canada recently tapered its QE programme and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand surprised the markets last week when it signalled the potential of a rate hike in the second half of 2022. If the RBNZ continues to send a hawkish message to the markets, we can expect the New Zealand dollar to gain ground.

This week’s key event is the US nonfarm payroll release for May on Friday (12:30 GMT). The market is projecting a strong release, with a consensus of 664 thousand. If the upcoming release is within expectations, it would indicate a significant acceleration from the April reading of 266 thousand. The April release was a massive miss, as the forecast stood at 966 thousand. Investors can be expected to be cautious ahead of the release. If the nonfarm payroll release is as strong as expected, we could see a breakout in the forex markets on Friday.

Investors will also be keeping an eye on wage growth, which could put a damper on the NFP party. Average Hourly Earnings is projected to slow to 0.2% in May, after a sharp gain of 0.7% previously.

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NZD/USD Technical

• There is resistance at 0.7777 and 0.7846
• On the downside, we have support at 0.7658 and 0.7608

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