Oil still looks bullish, gold slumps

Oil

The global energy crunch has crude prices heading higher.  Renewable energy won’t get the call when it comes to making up for the shortfall in natural gas.  Maybe a few years down the road, solar and wind can help more, but the global economy will likely demand more crude this winter than what the energy market was expecting.

WTI crude held onto its earlier gains even after the EIA crude oil report showed the first build in eight weeks.  The OPEC+ 2045 oil outlook also provided good reason to optimistic for energy producers – the world will take time converting to renewable energy, crude demand will remain strong despite electric vehicles, and demand outlook will require fresh wells.

Energy traders fixated over an OPEC secretariat document that said OPEC+ sees stockpiles falling 1.2 million bpd in October and that the oil market will return to surplus in 2022.

The rally in crude prices could use a break, but right now it doesn’t seem that may be the case.  If WTI crude takes out the summer high of USD 76.98, it won’t take much to see USD 80 oil.

Gold

Even with surging Treasury yields taking a break today, gold prices were unable to muster up a rebound as dollar strength accelerated.  Gold remains on thin ice as bearish momentum resumes.  The USD 1700 level seems imminent for bullion, with many traders eyeing the March lows ahead of USD 1670 as critical support.  The reset of inflation expectations has not benefited gold prices at all, in fact, it has been the primary driver for Treasury yields.

A short-term top for the rally in yields is likely nearing and that will be the moment of truth for gold.  If gold can show signs of stabilizing, then longer-term investors will return and bet on the 2022 global economic recovery that will ultimately lead to a weaker dollar.

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