Currency markets remain much more cautious

US dollar rally runs out of steam

Currency markets were volatile overnight but notably, the recovery rally in the US dollar ran out of steam. US yields rose only slightly after Friday’s sharp falls. The dollar index rose nearly 50 points to test 96.50 intraday but retreated to finish just 0.13% higher at 96.19. In Asia, the last of those gains have been unwound, the index falling 0.08% to 96.11. The index looks like to trade in a choppy 95.75 to 96.50 range over the next few sessions.

Notably, euro, sterling and yen all fell slightly overnight while the Swiss franc still managed to record gains, as did the Chinese yuan and the Canadian dollar. EUR/USD is back to 1.1300, with GBP/USD at 1.3325, while USD/JPY is holding steady at 113.65. USD/JPY will find a recovery back above 114.00 challenging this week. AUD/USD and NZD/USD booked modest gains to 0.7145 and 0.6825 overnight, suggesting caution prevails in the G-10 space regarding omicron, and both antipodeans are only just holding above their 2021 lows still at 0.7100 and 0.6800.

USD/MXN and USD/ZAR fell sharply overnight, and that sees the US dollar is moving lower across the board versus Asian currencies today, helped along by a fall by USD/CNY to 6.3715. USD/KRW, USD/MYR, USD/INR have fallen by 0.25% while USD/SGD and USD/THB are holding steady.

In the G-10 space, currencies appear to be reflecting some well-deserved caution towards omicron still, as usual, refusing to indulge in the mindless FOMO price action in the equity space. However, in the Asian regional space, local currencies appear to be pricing in the likelihood of a slower Fed taper, or even a halt to it thanks to the new variant. It is hard to argue with either thesis at the moment.

That suggests that a lower than expected Non-Farm Payrolls number on Friday is likely to see strength in the emerging space, rather than the DM space versus the US dollar. And omicron will likely mute any strong dollar effects from a higher than 500k print on Friday. Like other asset classes, markets will be on tenterhooks for the latest omicron headlines across the news ticker.

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