CAD climbs on soft US data, risk-on mood

The Canadian dollar continues to show strong movement early in the New Year. USD/CAD is currently trading at 1.2674, down 0.56% on the day.

ISM Manufacturing underperforms

The first tier-1 events in 2022 out of the US disappointed, missing their estimates. The ISM Manufacturing PMI for December slowed to 58.7, missing the consensus of 60.0 and below the November reading of 61.1 points. The PMI showed a 19th consecutive month of expansion, so there’s no arguing that the manufacturing sector is not performing well.

Still, the December reading was the lowest since January, which posted an identical figure. Manufacturing has been expanding, but growth has been hampered by raw material shortages, a lack of workers and supply bottlenecks. ISM Manufacturing Prices slowed to a 12-month low, with a reading of 68.2. This was down sharply from the previous read of 82.4 and shy of the estimate of 79.5 points.

On the employment front, JOLTS Jobs Openings for November decreased to 10.4 million, missing the forecast of 11.07 million and below the October reading of 11.09 million.

The Canadian dollar has also benefitted from elevated risk sentiment. Treasury yields have been rising this week, as investors continue to sell Treasury bills on improved sentiment that the latest wave of the Omicron variant, although extremely contagious, will be less severe than originally feared. In the US, Omicron cases are exploding, with the average number of new cases breaking above 400 thousand, a 200% increase in the past 14 days. However, hospitalisation rates have not jumped higher and Covid-related deaths have actually declined slightly during this period. With no indications that Omicron will have a devastating effect on the global economy, investors remain in a risk-on mood.

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USD/CAD Technical

• • USD/CAD has support at 1.2558 and 1.2477
  • There is resistance at 1.2784. Above, there is resistance at 1.2929

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