Oil powers higher, gold has support

OPEC+ displays little appetite for lower prices

Oil prices are surging once again today and have topped USD 110 as reports of disruptions to Russian exports as a result of the sanctions emerge. This is something that was already being priced into the markets prior to and after the invasion and the severity of the sanctions have justified those moves. As the details of the sanctions become clear, some of those issues may be resolved considering they have been designed to disrupt flows as little as possible, but they will continue to be impacted.

And at a time when the market is already extremely tight, something OPEC+ still seems unwilling to acknowledge after leaving planned increases unchanged again in April. Not that this matters enormously as they’re missing those targets by an increased margin each month so what reason is there to believe that increasing it would dramatically impact that? Unless certain members utilize some of that spare capacity.

Gold pares gains but has USD 2,000 in its sights

Gold is pulling back again on Wednesday after peaking at around USD 1,950 on Tuesday in risk-averse trade. It’s off less than 1% so far today but the trend remains very much in place. Inflation and risk-aversion are the perfect environments for the yellow metal and we’re seeing plenty of both at the moment, which is unlikely to change.

The question is how far it can go. Ultimately, that will depend on how long the invasion of Ukraine lasts and how severe the sanctions against Russia become. At the moment, it’s looking like a case of when it will hit USD 2,000 rather than if but a sudden and unexpected ceasefire would surely change that. One can only hope.

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