Oil edges higher, gold falls

Oil higher amid supply outages

Oil prices are edging higher again on Friday after paring gains over the last couple of days. With OPEC+ opting to raise production by 648,000 again in August but not comment beyond then, there is a cloud of uncertainty over the supply side again. Not that the group has delivered on its prior promises. Perhaps US President Joe Biden can convince Saudi Arabia and others to utilise what spare capacity they have during his trip to the Middle East this month although past efforts haven’t been particularly successful.

Outages in Libya as a force majeure were called at the Es Sider and Ras Lanuf ports, and El Feel oilfield, which means exports have fallen by around two-thirds compared to normal. Meanwhile, in Norway, strike action next week could hit production by around 4%. The tight market is here to stay and the only real case for significant price declines is a recession, sadly. ​ ​

Gold finally breaks out

My gold commentary has been getting shorter and shorter over the weeks as there’s only so many ways to say it’s still rangebound around USD 1,830. So I, for one, am quite interested to see it breaking below USD 1,800 this morning as the dollar eyes its mid-June peaks. The greenback has done well against the backdrop of much higher interest rates, very aggressive tightening expectations and risk aversion. A weekly close below USD 1,800 could spell trouble for the yellow metal.

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