NZ dollar falls to 26-month low

NZD/USD remains under pressure and is trading below the symbolic 0.60 level. Earlier today, the pair fell to 0.5976, its lowest level since May 2020.

New Zealand dollar slides after US inflation data

It was Black Tuesday for the New Zealand dollar, as NZD/USD declined by 2.24%. The US dollar recorded strong gains across the board, with the risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars taking a beating. The catalyst for the US dollar’s sharp upswing was the August inflation report. Although headline inflation fell for a second straight month, investors were far from impressed, sending the equity markets tumbling and the US dollar sharply higher.

Headline inflation dropped from 8.5% to 8.3%, but missed the consensus of 8.1%. Core CPI rose to 6.3%, up from 5.9% and above the forecast of 6.1%. The markets had priced in a 75bp increase in September followed by 50bp in November and 25bp in December. However, with inflation higher than expected, the Fed may not be in a position to scale back and market pricing for the September meeting is fluctuating – currently, there is a 64% chance of a 75bp move and a 34% likelihood of a 100bp increase. Larry Summers, a former Treasury Secretary, said on Tuesday that the inflation report indicated that the US has a “serious inflation problem” and a 100bp move would “reinforce credibility”.

New Zealand will release GDP for the second quarter on Thursday. The economy is expected to rebound with a strong 1.0% gain, after a decline of 0.3% in Q1. The economy is performing well, with a strong rebound after the Covid pandemic. The country’s credit rating was reaffirmed by S&P today at AA+, an important thumbs up for the New Zealand economy.

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NZD/USD Technical

• 0.6017 is a weak resistance line, followed by 0.6085
• There is support at 0.5929 and 0.5861

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