Week Ahead – Control of Congress

US

This week will be massive for markets as investors closely watch to see how inflation moderates. In addition to watching to see if inflation comes down from a 40-year high, Wall Street will pay close attention to the midterm elections. Right now polls are suggesting Republicans have a good chance to take over both the House and Senate.  

In addition to the inflation report and the midterm election, traders will also closely monitor the preliminary University of Michigan Survey. Sentiment is expected to soften, but traders will pay close attention to inflation expectations, which have been pushing higher.  

EU 

A quiet week as far as upper-tier economic data is concerned which means the focus next week will be on commentary from ECB policymakers including President Lagarde on Monday, among others. 

UK

The dust continues to settle in the UK but as BoE Governor Bailey indicated last week, it’s going to take time to regain confidence and credibility in the markets. The events of the last couple of months have severely damaged the UK’s reputation which was already tarnished by those of recent years. All eyes are now on the Autumn Statement on 17 November. 

We’ll get a steady stream of BoE commentary throughout the week which comes on the back of a very dovish rate hike, in which Bailey and colleagues pushed back strongly against market expectations. GDP data on Friday will be of interest but most have already accepted that the country is in recession.

Russia

Inflation data is the most notable release next week after the central bank left its key rate unchanged at 7.5% in October. 

South Africa

A relatively quiet week containing a few tier two or three economic releases, the highlight of which is probably manufacturing production figures on Thursday, both of which are expected to have declined in September.

Turkey

Official inflation reached more than 85% in October as the central bank continues to slash interest rates. The inflation data is clearly no deterrent and if anything, President Erdogan sounds more determined than ever to see rates fall further. 

Industrial production and unemployment data among the economic releases next week.

Switzerland

Inflationary pressures eased a little last month which may come as a relief to SNB policymakers, some of whom we’ll hear from next week including Chairman Jordan. Further hikes still look likely but to what extent? Policymakers may shed some light. 

China

As China’s zero-Covid policy continues, the recently released manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs for October fell to 48.7 and 49.2, respectively, below the 50 threshold separating contraction from expansion. 

Investors should pay close attention to China’s foreign trade data for October on Monday to see if China’s trade surplus is tending to deteriorate. The CPI on Wednesday is also key as an increase will reduce the ability of the PBOC to support the economy.

The market is currently discussing the possibility of the PBOC lowering the reserve requirement ratio again in order to release more liquidity. These policies may support a more accommodative monetary policy environment in China, which will support growth.   

India

Very few economic releases are due next week with the only one of note being industrial output on Friday. 

Australia & New Zealand

The AUDUSD and NZDUSD have rallied slightly as market risk sentiment has warmed over the past two weeks. They’ve been broadly weak overall against the US dollar as China’s zero-Covid policy continued, and the market was still digesting the Fed rate moves. 

The RBA raised interest rates by 25 bps at its monetary policy meeting on 1 November, raising the cash rate from 2.60% to 2.85%. The RBA updated its forecasts, raising its expectation for peak inflation to 8.0% from 7.75%. Third quarter CPI released last week rose by 7.3% in October, above market expectations of 7.0% and the previous value of 6.1%. The RBA is likely to continue its policy of raising interest rates at the next meeting on 6 December. 

As the overall level of inflation in New Zealand remains high, the market expects a 50-75 bps rate hike at the RBNZ’s next central bank rate meeting on 23 November. 

Japan

The Bank of Japan remained committed to its super-loose monetary policy at its last meeting while raising inflation expectations across the board (the CPI ex-fresh food forecast for FY2023 was raised from 1.4% to 1.6% per annum). It will release its summary of opinions from board members on Monday.

Japan may intervene again in the FX market in the coming weeks if USDJPY continues to aggressively rally. There has been discussion in the market about whether the Bank of Japan will undertake a step-by-step exit from its yield curve control (YCC) in the future, although policymakers have pushed back against this.

Singapore

According to the Monetary Authority of Singapore, core inflation risks remain tilted to the upside, and the economy is expected to grow at a below-trend rate in 2023. Singapore’s CPI recently hit 7.5% in September, with the core CPI at 5.3%. Business confidence also fell sharply to -20 in the third quarter, compared to -8 previously. 

No major economic releases are due next week.

Economic Calendar

Saturday, Nov. 5

Economic Events

Berkshire Hathaway Inc reports Q3 earnings

Sunday, Nov. 6

Economic Events

Daylight Saving Time ends in the US

The annual UN climate summit, COP27 begins in Egypt

Monday, Nov. 7

Economic Data/Events

Australian Foreign reserves

China foreign reserves and trade

Singapore foreign reserves

Germany industrial production

Thailand CPI

ECB President Lagarde speaks to the European Commission/ECB high-level conference on the framework for a digital euro

ECB board member Panetta participates in a panel discussion at the same event

Fed’s Collins and Mester speak at a symposium on women in economics hosted by the Cleveland Fed

Fed’s Barkin participates in a discussion about inflation

Eurozone finance ministers meet in Brussels

Tuesday, Nov. 8

Economic Data/Events

US midterm elections

Australia consumer confidence, household spending

Eurozone retail sales

France trade

Japan household spending, leading index

Mexico international reserves

New Zealand truckometer traffic index, inflation expectation

Bundesbank symposium; speeches by Nagel and Enria

Riksbank’s Breman speaks about the global economy

ECB’s Wunsch gives a public lecture in Geneva entitled “Germs, War and Central Banks”

BOE’s Mann participates in a panel at a conference on global risk, uncertainty and volatility hosted by the Swiss National Bank, Fed and BIS in Zurich

BOE Chief Economist Pill participates in a panel at the UBS European Conference in London

BOJ announces the outright purchase amount of government securities

Wednesday, Nov. 9

Economic Data/Events

US wholesale inventories, MBA mortgage applications

Mexico CPI

Hungary CPI

Russia CPI 

China aggregate financing, PPI, CPI, money supply, new yuan loans

Japan BoP, bank lending

New Zealand card spending

Poland rate decision: Expected to keep base rate unchanged at 6.75%

South Korea jobless rate, bank lending to households

UK RICS home prices

EIA crude oil inventory

New York Fed President John Williams speaks at a conference on global risk, uncertainty and volatility jointly hosted by the Swiss National Bank, Fed and BIS in Zurich

Fed’s Barkin speaks about the economic outlook at the Shenandoah University School of Business in Winchester, Virginia

RBA Deputy Governor Michele Bullock speaks at the 2022 ABE Annual Dinner in Sydney

ECB’s Elderson participates in a panel at an event organized by Euro-Mediterranean Economists Association

Norges Bank and Riksbank release their respective financial stability reports

BOE’s Haskel speaks at a Digital Futures at Work Research Centre event titled “Restarting the Future: How to Fix the Intangible Economy”

Hong Kong Chief Executive Lee is scheduled to address a British Chamber of Commerce-organized webinar 

Thursday, Nov. 10

Economic Data/Events

US CPI and jobless claims

Norway CPI

Australia consumer inflation expectations

Italy industrial production

Japan money stock, machine tool orders

Mexico rate decision: Expected to raise the overnight rate by 75bps to 10.00%

New Zealand home sales

South Africa manufacturing production

Thailand consumer confidence

Dallas Fed President Logan and Kansas City Fed President George speak at an energy and economy conference jointly hosted by their banks

Cleveland Fed President Mester speaks about the outlook for the economy and monetary policy at a virtual event hosted by Princeton University

BOE Deputy Governor Ramsden participates in a panel at the Next STEP Global Conference 2022 hosted by PIIE and National University of Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in Singapore

BOE’s Tenreyro delivers a keynote speech at the Society of Professional Economists Annual Conference in London

SNB’s Maechler delivers keynote speech at the 17th Annual Meeting of SFI in Zurich

ECB’s Schnabel, Kažimír and Vasle speak at an event in Ljubljana, Slovenia. Schnabel also participates in a roundtable discussion at the Bank of Slovenia

ECB publishes its Economic Bulletin

RBNZ releases a review of monetary policy implementation

United Nations publishes its “Food Outlook” report

Friday, Nov. 11

Economic Data/Events

US Veterans Day holiday. The stock market will be open

US University of Michigan consumer sentiment

China FDI

Singles’ Day (Shopping event) in China

ECB’s Panetta delivers a talk at the Italian Institute for International Political Studies in Milan

ECB’s de Guindos, Pablo Hernández de Cos and Centeno speak at XXVII Encuentro de Economía en S’Agaró

ECB’s Holzmann speaks to journalists at the Club of Economic Writers in Vienna

ECB Chief Economist Lane participates in a policy panel at the 23rd Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference in Washington

EU releases its autumn economic forecast

Germany CPI

Hong Kong GDP

India industrial production

Japan PPI

Mexico industrial production

New Zealand food prices, PMI

Turkey industrial production, current account

UK industrial production, GDP

Sovereign Rating Updates

Switzerland (Fitch)

Iceland (S&P)

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