Week Ahead – Inflation remains key

US

This week’s main event will be when a little inflation report comes out. The US CPI report for December is expected to show disinflation trends remain firmly in place.  The year-over-year CPI reading is expected to cool from 7.1% to 6.6%, while the monthly reading is expected to remain flat. At the end of the week, the University of Michigan sentiment report is expected to show a modest improvement and could show inflation expectations continue to come down.  

Earnings season begins on Friday, and everyone will pay close attention to what the banks say about the economy.  Recession calls could get a major boost if JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo turn pessimistic about the consumer.  

US politics will dominate weekend headlines as Republicans try to elect a speaker.  The House can’t function without a speaker and this impasse has implications for national security-related briefings and oversight.

EU 

A quiet week in store with only a few relatively small data points due, the most notable of which being the unemployment report for the eurozone. All eyes now on the ECB meeting early next month after the December inflation data showed price growth slowing considerably but underlying core prices rising.

UK 

A few Bank of England policymakers are due to speak over the next week, including Catherine Mann on Saturday and Huw Pill on Sunday which may help set the tone for the week. Governor Andrew Bailey will also make an appearance on Tuesday so we could get a better idea of where they stand in the new year. 

That aside it’s pretty quiet from a UK data standpoint with monthly GDP figures on Friday the only notable releases as we look for confirmation of the economy being in recession.

Russia

A quiet one next week with inflation data on Wednesday the only notable release. Focus remains on the war in Ukraine and what the next development in that will be.

South Africa

Government efforts to amend the mandate of the SARB have not been greeted well by the markets, the view being that any changes could weaken its inflation commitment and blur the lines between the institutions. The currency has weakened in response to the reports although any changes are not likely to occur any time soon and probably not at all if past attempts are anything to go by. The government doesn’t have the super-majority required to make the constitutional changes without help from opposition parties. 

Turkey

Unemployment and industrial production figures are the only notable releases next week. 

Switzerland

A very quiet week with unemployment the only release of note.

China

In the last week of 2022, China announced that people entering the country would no longer be required to undergo quarantine. It’s one of the most important steps the world’s second-largest economy has taken toward reopening to the world since the start of the pandemic. China has resumed its international contact with countries around the world.

At the same time, China will also relax the Covid controls for international arrivals from 8 January 2023, downgrading Covid management from Category A to Category B. The most important measure is that international arrivals will no longer be subject to testing and quarantine. International arrivals will only be required to have a negative PCR test within 48 hours prior to departure. They will no longer need to apply for a health code, as travelers will only need to declare their health status on their customs cards.

The centralized quarantine system has also been lifted in China, and the movement of people within the country is about to return to pre-pandemic conditions. Health authorities in China and abroad are concerned about the lack of herd immunity in China due to the long-standing zero-Covid policy and the relatively low vaccination rate of high-risk groups in the country over the past three years. A number of countries have now introduced certain restrictions on the entry of Chinese tourists in terms of testing and quarantine measures. The Chinese government’s subsequent response to a large number of confirmed new cases will be one of the risk events that the market will be watching. 

As several countries and regions worldwide may enter a recession in 2023, external demand will decline, and export-related activities, including manufacturing, may slow down, hindering China’s economic recovery. China’s economic recovery may only get going in the second half of this year. The Chinese government is expected to increase its financial strength to support the domestic economy by continuing to build unfinished domestic projects and perhaps developing more transport, energy, and technology infrastructure.

Next week brings CPI data for December which is expected to have little impact on the market.

India

A few releases of note next week including inflation and industrial output on Thursday.

Australia & New Zealand

China has recently eased the domestic and international Covid policy and the rebound in the economy is expected to boost demand for commodities such as iron ore. This could be supportive for commodity currencies this year.

Australian retail sales and the RBA CPI  are eyed for further guidance on whether the inflation level has improved.

Japan

The Bank of Japan unexpectedly adjusted its government bond yield curve control on 20 December, triggering a spike in the yen. In response, the December summary of opinions stated that the revision of the YCC would help improve market functioning, that it was not an exit policy shift, and that Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE) and YCC should continue if needed. Traders are not convinced.

Next week focuses on the Japan Tokyo CPI, core CPI, and CPI excluding fresh food for further guidance on the level and path of inflation in Japan.

Economic Calendar

Saturday, Jan. 7

Economic Events

BOE’s Mann speaks on the world economy

Sunday, Jan. 8

BOE’s Pill speaks on monetary policy at the AEA meeting in New Orleans

NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg and Swedish PM Kristersson speak at the Security Policy conference Folk och Forsvar in Sweden

Monday, Jan. 9

Economic Data/Events

Australia foreign reserves

Singapore foreign reserves

Australia building approvals

China aggregate financing, money supply, new yuan loans

Czech Republic GDP

Eurozone unemployment

France trade

Germany industrial production

Italy unemployment

Mexico CPI

Thailand consumer confidence

Fed’s Bostic in moderated discussion on the economy at the Rotary Club of Atlanta

BOE’s Pill speaks on the UK economic and monetary policy outlook at Money Marketeers event

Norwegian Petroleum Directorate annual report  

Swiss National Bank releases 2022 results

Tuesday, Jan. 10

Economic Data/Events

US wholesale inventories

Colombia retail sales

France industrial production

Japan household spending, Tokyo CPI

Mexico international reserves

New Zealand house sales

Philippines trade

South Korea BoP

South Africa manufacturing production

Spain industrial production

Turkey industrial production

Symposium at Riksbank in Stockholm. Speeches by Fed Chair Powell, BOE Governor Bailey, ECB’s Schnabel, de Cos, and Knot

World Bank expected to release global economic prospects report

Wednesday, Jan. 11

Economic Data/Event

Australia retail sales, CPI, job vacancies

China FDI

Japan leading index

Mexico industrial production

New Zealand home sales, commodity prices

Turkey current account

ECB’s Holzmann and Vujcic speak in Vienna at the Euromoney CEE conference

Bank of Italy releases banks and money monthly statistics

Thursday, Jan. 12

Economic Data/Events

US CPI, initial jobless claims

India CPI

Australia trade

China CPI, PPI

India industrial production

Japan BoP

New Zealand building permits

Fed’s Bullard discusses the economy and monetary policy at a virtual event hosted by the Wisconsin Bankers Association

Fed’s Barkin speaks at VBA/VA Chamber

ECB consumer expectations survey for November, and economic bulletin

USDA releases monthly world agricultural supply/demand estimates (WASDE)

Friday, Jan. 13

Economic Data/Events

US University of Michigan consumer sentiment

France CPI

Poland CPI

Russia CPI 

Australia home loans

Canada existing home sales

China trade

Eurozone industrial production

India trade

Italy industrial production

Japan money stock

Thailand forward contracts, foreign reserves

UK industrial production

Czech Republic presidential elections first round voting starts

Earnings Season Reports from: BlackRock, Citigroup, Delta Air Lines, Didi Global, First Republic, JPMorgan Chase, UnitedHealth Group, and Wells Fargo

Italy’s Istat releases monthly economic note

Sovereign Rating Updates

Poland (Fitch)

Spain (Moody’s)

Iceland (Moody’s)

Ireland (DBRS)

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