Week Ahead – More turmoil to come?

US

A week ago, a lot of economists were thinking the Fed was going to pick up the pace of rate hikes as disinflation trends were struggling given a robust core services inflation reading and tight labor market conditions.  A banking crisis however is changing how policymakers are assessing the impact of the first eight rate hikes. 

Fed expectations are all over the place with Nomura analysts calling for a rate cut, while most investors are between a hold or a final quarter-point rate rise.  How broader financial turmoil plays out leading to the FOMC decision could greatly influence how policymakers place their rate vote. 

In addition to the FOMC decision, it will be a busy week of economic data releases.  On Tuesday, existing home sales data is expected to show a modest rebound.  Thursday contains the release of initial jobless claims, the Chicago Fed national activity index, and new home sales data. On Friday we get the first look at February’s durable goods data and the flash PMIs.  

Earnings season winds down with key results from Accenture, China Mobile, China Pacific Insurance Group, China Petroleum & Chemical, China Shenhua Energy, China Telecom, General Mills, Nike, RWE, Tencent, and Xiaomi.  

Eurozone

It goes without saying that the focus in Europe next week will be firmly on the banking sector and whether recent turmoil has had any ripple effects on weaker institutions or highlighted any vulnerabilities. The ECB opted to hike by 50 basis points, as planned, on Thursday despite recent events but refused to commit further and so comments from President Lagarde next week as the situation evolves will be monitored very closely. Flash PMIs on Friday will also be of interest but against the backdrop of recent events, won’t pack the punch they may otherwise have.

UK 

The Bank of England meeting on Thursday will be fascinating. Not only does it have recent turmoil in financial markets to contend with but policymakers were already divided on the correct course of action prior to it. At the last meeting, two voted to leave rates on hold and could feasibly now consider backing a cut. What’s more, in the budget this week, the Chancellor confirmed that the OBR sees inflation falling to 2.9% by the end of the year, and while the BoE will use its own forecasts, others may be tempted to pause the tightening cycle to see what further fallout there will be in the banking sector if any. 

Markets are torn on whether the MPC will hike or not, putting it at a 50/50 chance and it may well be swung by whether there’s any further disruption prior to the meeting, as well as the inflation data that is released the day before. It promises to be a very interesting announcement.

Russia

A quiet week following the CBR decision to leave interest rates unchanged on Friday. PPI inflation data is the only notable economic release.

South Africa

The SARB is likely at or near the end of its tightening cycle and recent activity may encourage a cautious approach when it next meets in two weeks. That said, the inflation data may allow for that anyway with the core annual figure already in its 3-6% target range and the headline rate expected to fall close to that when it’s released on Wednesday. 

Turkey

The CBRT is expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Thursday but as is always the case with the Turkish central bank, nothing can be assumed. It started cutting the repo rate again last month and you wouldn’t put it past it continuing that on the 23rd. 

Switzerland

Another central bank meeting next week and in light of events this week, heavily centered around one of its own, Credit Suisse, it will be very interesting to see whether it sticks with plans for a 50 basis point hike. While it hasn’t hiked rates much so far, the SNB has a low tolerance for inflation so may remain determined to stick with the plan despite inflation being only 3.4% in March. 

China

The key event from China will be the loan prime rate fixing.  China is expected to keep the LPR steady for a seventh straight month as they try to keep support in place for property markets.  The one-year loan prime rate is at 3.65% and the five-year is at 4.30%, which are both at the lowest level in the past two decades.   

India

No major releases are expected from India.  Markets are still pricing in one more rate hike in the tightening cycle at the next meeting on April 6th as inflation still remains well above their 6% target ceiling.  

Australia & New Zealand

On Monday, Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Christopher Kent is expected to speak at the KangaNews DCM Summit in Sydney. The focus in Australia will fall on the minutes to the March 7th rate decision that saw a 25 bps rate increase, but also a signal that they will have a ‘completely open mind’ at the April 4th policy meeting.   The Westpac Leading index for February will also be released on Wednesday.  

In New Zealand traders are eyeing February trade data and Westpac consumer confidence.  

Japan

It is all about inflation in Japan this week.  The national CPI reading for February is expected to cool from 4.3% to 3.3% as utility bills softened over energy subsidies. Pricing pressures however should remain robust as the ex-fresh food and energy is expected to rise on an annual basis from 3.2% to 3.4%.     

Singapore

High inflation has been keeping pressure on MAS to keep policy tight.  The February inflation report is expected to show inflation decelerated from 6.6% to 6.5%, with some analysts expecting a stronger drop to 5.8%.   

Economic Calendar

Saturday, March 18

Economic Events

The safe-transit deal for grain exports from three Ukrainian Black Sea ports is due to expire

German Chancellor Scholz to meet with Japanese PM Kishida in Japan

Sunday, March 19

Economic Events

House Republicans begin a three-day policy retreat in Orlando, Florida

Monday, March 20

Economic Data/Events

China loan prime rates

Taiwan export orders

EU foreign ministers, defense ministers meet in Brussels

RBA’s Kent speaks at the KangaNews DCM Summit in Sydney

ECB President Lagarde appears before European Parliament’s economic committee

Tuesday, March 21

Economic Data/Events

Fed begins two-day policy meeting

US existing home sales

Canada CPI

Eurozone new car registrations

Germany ZEW survey expectations

New Zealand trade

UK Chancellor Hunt appears in the House of Commons and before the House of Lords economic affairs committee

Chinese President Xi Jinping expected to visit Moscow for a meeting with Russian leader Putin

ECB’s Enria speaks at the European Parliament’s economic committee to discuss fallout from SVB’s collapse

ECB President Lagarde and Villeroy speak at Bank for International Settlements “innovation summit”

RBA releases minutes of its March policy meeting

Finnish economic forecast from ETLA research institute

Riksbank’s Breman speaks on the economy and monetary policy in Stockholm

Wednesday, March 22

Economic Data/Events

FOMC rate decision: Banking turmoil has shifted expectations from a half-point rate rise to a possible hold.  Inflation worries should support one last quarter-point rate hike 

Australia leading index

Japan machine tool orders

Mexico international reserves

New Zealand consumer confidence

South Africa CPI

UK CPI

ECB’s Lagarde, Lane, Wunsch and Panetta speak at “The ECB and Its Watchers” conference at the Goethe Institute in Frankfurt

Bundesbank President Nagel speaks on the future of the euro area at OMFIF in London

ECB’s Rehn speaks in Brussels on “Lessons from Europe’s crises”

US Treasury Secretary Yellen to appear at a Senate subcommittee hearing focused on 2024 budget

Riksbank Governor Thedeen speaks on a panel organized by the Bank of International Settlements

BOC releases summary of most recent deliberations

EIA crude oil inventory report

Thursday, March 23

Economic Data/Events

US new home sales, initial jobless claims

BOE rate decision: Expected to raise bank rate by 25bps to 4.25%

SNB rate decision: Expectations are between a 25-50bps rate increase 

Norges rate decision: Expected to raise rates by 25bps to 3.00%

CBRT rate decision: Expected to keep rates steady at 8.50%

China Swift global payments

Eurozone consumer confidence

Japan department store sales

New Zealand heavy traffic index

Singapore CPI

Taiwan industrial production, rate decision

Thailand trade

EU leaders meet in Brussels for a two-day summit

ECB’s Holzmann speaks after the release of the Austrian National Bank annual report

Hungary’s parliament may vote on approval of the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO

US Treasury Secretary Yellen testifies on the budget to a House Appropriations subcommittee

President Joe Biden to visit Canada

Friday, March 24

Economic Data/Events

US durable goods

Australia PMI

Canada retail sales

European Flash PMIs: Eurozone, Germany, France, and the UK

Japan CPI, PMI

Singapore industrial production

Spain GDP

Taiwan jobless rate, money supply

Thailand foreign reserves, forward contracts

Bundesbank President Nagel speaks on the labor market

BOE’s Mann speaks at a Global Interdependence Center conference

Sovereign Rating Updates

Germany (S&P)

Poland (Moody’s)

Finland (DBRS)

France (DBRS)

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