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ADP report is another huge blow to Fed pause hopes, jobless claims in line

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Federal Reserve policymakers may well be dreading tomorrow’s jobs report now after today’s ADP number once again obliterated estimates, coming in more than double the consensus forecast.

That’s almost become the norm on payrolls day but FOMC policymakers, along with investors, may have been hoping the tide would now turn after such as intense tightening cycle over the last 18 months. But if the ADP report is anything to go by, we’re headed for another red-hot jobs report.

If a rate hike this month wasn’t already nailed on, it probably is now. The ADP isn’t often a great precursor to the NFP number but this is a report you simply can’t ignore. I’m sure everyone will be revising up their expectations on the back of it and wondering just how much longer this labour market resilience can last. How high must rates go?

Jobless claims crept up again but were just about in line with expectations and still probably lower than what many will have anticipated at this stage. Next up is JOLTS and it will take something seriously shocking to bring balance back to this debate. It’s no longer a question of if the Fed hikes this month but how many more after that?

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/

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Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Former Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary.

His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News.

Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
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