EUR/USD higher as eurozone inflation slides

• Eurozone inflation falls to 4.5%
• US Core PCE Price Index eases to 3.9%

The euro has moved upwards on Friday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0597, up 0.30%. After falling sharply earlier this week, the euro has rebounded and gained close to 1% since Wednesday.

Eurozone inflation falls to 4.5%

The eurozone’s inflation level dropped to 4.3% y/y in September, a sharp decline from the August reading of 5.2% y/y and below market expectations of 4.5% y/y. Lower energy costs helped push inflation lower. The September release is the lowest inflation level since October 2021. The core inflation rate, which excludes food and energy, fell from 5.3% y/y to 4.5%, beating expectations and declining to its lowest level in 11 months.

The sharp drop in eurozone inflation comes on the heels of a similar decline in Germany, the bloc’s largest economy. The decline in core inflation is particularly important and supports the view that the ECB will not have to continue raising rates. Inflation still remains much higher than the ECB’s target of 2%, but the downtrend is encouraging and the ECB would prefer to avoid further hikes which could tip the weak eurozone economy into a recession.

In the US, the Core PCE Price Index, which is considered the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, dipped to 0.1% m/m in August, after back-to-back gains of 0.2% m/m. The annual rate eased to 3.9% y/y as expected, down from 4.2% in August. This was the lowest level since September 2021 and supports another pause from the Fed at the next meeting on November 1^st, with the markets pricing in just a 17% chance of a quarter-point hike, according to the FedWatch tool.

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EUR/USD Technical

• EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.0594. Above, there is resistance at 1.0666
• There is support at 1.0544 and 1.0472

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