UK inflation data sees markets price in more rate cuts from the BoE

The Bank of England may be much closer to cutting interest rates than it admitted last week when three policymakers thought it still appropriate to hike again.

Inflation data from the UK this morning showed price growth has cooled faster again and much more so than the BoE anticipated in November when it released its last forecasts. The headline CPI slipped back to 3.9% while the core fell to 5.1%; both still far above target but on a rapid descent toward it.

While disinflation is expected to slow, there’s now a lot of evidence that it’s doing so to a much lesser extent than thought which could demand a quicker and more forceful response from the central bank. And that’s exactly what markets have priced in this morning.

Before the release, markets were eyeing around four 25 basis point rate cuts next year which already looked aggressive compared with recent BoE commentary but now it’s somewhere between 125 and 150 bps in total. That’s much more aligned with the Fed and ECB and suggests the UK isn’t as far behind its peers as thought.

The data took some more heat out of the currency today, with the pound trading lower against the dollar, euro, and yen, among others. Retail sales on Friday will now be interesting as we see whether past hikes are continuing to weigh on consumer activity which could ultimately push down services inflation further.

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