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Brent Crude – Oil gives back gains after inventory data

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  • EIA reported inventories rose by 12 million barrels last week
  • Volatility remains amid uncertainty
  • Inverse head and shoulders forms

Oil prices remain very volatile and last week’s unexpected and substantial inventory build, reported by EIA, further added to that.

The price fell sharply after the data and continued earlier today before recouping those losses to trade flat on the session.

It’s understandable why oil prices are so volatile, there’s tremendous uncertainty around the Middle East, the economy, and interest rates which is generating these large moves.

There has been more of an upside bias of late but broadly speaking the price remains at reasonable levels that won’t be a concern from an inflationary standpoint.

Inverse head and shoulders formed?

Brent crude has been gradually recovering since mid-December and appears to have formed an inverse head and shoulders in the process.

Brent Crude Daily

Source – OANDA

The neckline falls around $84 and hasn’t been broken so the formation is still incomplete. A break of it though could be very bullish and may offer possible price projections based on the size of the inverse head and shoulders formation.

Of course, nothing is guaranteed but it’s clear that $84 is a significant resistance level and one that’s been reinforced multiple times. The higher lows since mid-December also suggest bullish momentum is gradually building.

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Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Former Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary.

His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News.

Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
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