The New Zealand dollar has posted sharp losses for a second successive day. NZD/USD is trading at 0.6042 in the North American session, down 0.54% on the day at the time of writing. The New Zealand dollar has declined 1.3% this week and is trading at its lowest level since May 15.
New Zealand CPI expected to drop
New Zealand releases the second quarter inflation report early Wednesday. The market estimate stands at 3.5% y/y, compared to 4% in the first quarter. Quarterly, inflation is expected to remain steady at 0.6%.
The inflation report will be a key factor in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate decision on August 14. The central bank stunned the markets with a dovish stance at last week’s rate meeting. The RBNZ held the cash rate at 5.5% as expected but left the door open to rate cuts if inflation falls as expected.
The dovish pivot means that the August meeting will be live. At the previous meeting in May, the RBNZ discussed a rate hike but made a dramatic shift at the July meeting, noting that it was concerned the economy could be cooling faster than it had expected.
US retail sales softer than expected
US retail sales dipped to 2.3% y/y in June, down from 2.6% in May but higher than the forecast of 2.1%. Monthly, retail sales were unchanged in June, down from a revised 0.3% in May and matching the market estimate. This was the second time in three months that retail sales were unchanged, pointing to weakness in consumer spending.
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NZD/USD Technical
- NZD/USD pushed below support at 0.6071 earlier. Below, there is support at 0.6024
- There is resistance at 0.6160 and 0.6202
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Kenny Fisher
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