Australian dollar extends losses, Fed minutes loom

The Australian dollar continues to decline and is down for a fifth straight day. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6725, down 0.31%. The Aussie is down 2.7% in October and is trading at one-month lows.

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s minutes, released Tuesday, indicated that the central bank is considering all options with regard to rate policy. The problem for the RBA is the need to balance the opposing risks of falling inflation and a resilient labor market. The drop in inflation supports lowering rates but the surprisingly strong labor market means a cut may not be necessary. In what the minutes called “the uncertain economic outlook”, the RBA has little choice but to base its rate decisions on key data. Australia releases employment next week and inflation a week prior to the RBA’s November meeting.

The minutes stated that the RBA’s cash rate would not have to “evolve in line” with the rates in other countries. This was a clear attempt to dampen expectations of a rate cut due to the fact that other major central banks have embarked on a rate-cutting cycle. RBA policy makers were again reminded that the RBA has become an outlier when New Zealand’s central bank chopped rates by 50 basis points on Wednesday. The RBA is one of the few major central banks which has not cut rates this year.

Last week’s sparkling employment report in the US has put Fed policy makers in the same predicament as the RBA – employment is showing resilience while inflation has been falling. Fed member Philip Jefferson said on Tuesday that the risks to inflation and employment were evenly balanced. The Fed may find itself in a “no landing” situation, in which it can’t lower rates due to the strong economy, and might have to raise rates if inflation moves higher.

AUD/USD Technical

• AUD/USD pushed below support at 0.6745 and 0.6720 earlier. Next, there is support at 0.6692
• There is resistance at 0.6773 and 0.6798

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