GBP/USD falls ahead of UK employment report

The British pound is lower on Monday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2870, down 0.33% on the day. The pound is coming of a sixth straight losing week, declining 3.5% during that time. It’s a quiet day on the data calendar, with no US events and only one minor UK release.

UK employment expected to decline

The UK releases the employment report for the three months to September on Tuesday. Job growth soared by 373 thousand in the prior report, crushing the market estimate of 250 thousand. The labor market is expected to reverse directions, with a market estimate of -50 thousand. As well, the unemployment rate is projected to inch up to 4.1%, up from 4%.

Wage growth excluding bonuses is expected to fall to 4.7% in the three months to September, down from 4.9% in the previous report. Wage growth has been easing but is still high and BoE policymakers are concerned about the possibility of a wage-price spiral. The strong growth in wages has contributed to high inflation in the services sector.

The BoE holds its final policy meeting in December and Tuesday’s jobs report could impact market expectations. The BoE reduced rates by 25 basis points last week to 4.75% but with inflation falling to 1.7% in September, more rate cuts are likely on the way.

A host of Federal Reserve members will deliver remarks on Tuesday and investors will be looking for clues about future rate moves. The Fed lowered rates by 25 basis points last week, a move that was well-telegraphed in advance. What will the Fed do at the December meeting? That is much less clear, as the markets have priced in a pause at 23%, a 25-basis cut at 2.9%, and a 50-basis cut at 22%, according to the CME’s FedWatch.

GBP/USD Technical

• GBP/USD is testing support at 1.2870. Below, there is support at 1.2822
• There is resistance at 1.2933 and 1.2981

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