EUR/USD slips to 7-month low on weak eurozone confidence data

The euro can’t seem to find its footing. EUR/USD is down for a third straight trading day and has declined 0.38% on Tuesday, trading at 1.0608 at the time of writing. Earlier today, the euro dropped as low as 1.0606, its lowest level since April 15.

The US dollar rose after Donald Trump’s decisive election win, and the dollar is getting a boost as the Republicans are likely to win the House of Representatives. This would give the Republicans control of the House and the Senate and would make it easier for Trump to push through his agenda.

Eurozone confidence falls sharply

The eurozone ZEW economic sentiment index fell in November to 12.5, down sharply from 20.1 in October and well short of the market estimate of 20.5. It was a similar story for the German ZEW release, which fell from 13.1 to 7.4, shy of the consensus of 13. Investors and analysts are pessimistic about the economic outlook for two reasons. First, the Trump victory could signal new tariffs on European products and even trigger a trade war, the last thing the weak eurozone economy can afford. The second concern is the collapse of the German government coalition, with a snap election called for Feb. 23.

The European Central Bank meets next month and has signaled another reduction. ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn said on Tuesday that a December cut is likely. The markets have priced in a reduction of 35 basis points in December, suggesting that traders are split on whether the ECB will opt for a cut of 25 or 50 basis points. There are differing opinions among the Governing Council members and we’re likely to see these opposing views aired in the coming weeks.

EUR/USD Technical

• EUR/USD tested support at 1.0614 earlier Below, there is support at 1.0572
• There is resistance at 1.0671 and 1.0713

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