British pound jumps, US PCE inflation meets expectations

The British pound has posted sharp gains on Wednesday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at .1.2669, up 0.81% on the day.

There are no UK releases today, but in the US it’s a busy data calendar. US GDP (second estimate) showed a gain of 2.8%, unchanged from the initial estimate. The economy is expected to show growth of 2.6% in the third quarter, below second-quarter growth of 3% but still a respectable clip.

The US economy has remained surprisingly resilient despite high interest rates, as the Federal Reserve tightened policy in order to contain inflation. The economy showed some cracks due to high rates but the economy has avoided a recession as the economy has been growing and the labor market has cooled but not collapsed. Consumer spending and confidence remain solid and this has helped propel economic growth. Consumer spending rose to 3.5% in the second quarter and consumer confidence increased in October.

US PCE Price Index climbs to 2.3%

The US personal consumption expenditures price index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator, came in as expected. The PCE price index was unchanged in October at 0.2% m/m, in line with expectations. Annually, the PCE price index rose 2.3%, matching the market estimate but above the September gain of 2.1%.

The core rate, which excludes food and energy, gained 0.3% m/m, the same as September and in line with the market estimate. Annually, the gain of 2.8% in October was up from the 2.7% gain in September and matched expectations.

The markets have raised the odds of a 25-basis point cut at the Dec. 18 meeting, even though both the headline and core PCE inflation readings rose in October. The probability of a 25-bp cut currently stands at 70% up from 59% a day ago, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

GBP/USD Technical

• GBP/USD has pushed above resistance at 1.2620 and is testing resistance at 1.2673. Next, there is resistance at 1.2729
• 1.2564 and 1.2511 are providing support

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