Gold Drops as Congress Avoids Federal Shutdown

Gold has posted losses in the Monday session. In North American trade, spot gold is trading at $1254.88 an ounce. On the release front, US numbers started the week on a soft note. ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 54.8, short of the estimate of 56.6 points. This marked a 4-month low. US Personal Spending dipped to 0.0%, shy of the forecast of 0.2%. Later in the day, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will deliver remarks at the Milken Conference in Los Angeles.

The US economy appears to have hit some turbulence, as underscored by a disappointing Advance GDP for the first quarter. The economy expanded at just 0.7%, well below the forecast of 1.3%. Consumer indicators have also been softer than expected. On Friday, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment came in at 97.0, short of the estimate of 98.1 points. This echoed the CB Consumer Confidence report earlier in the week, which also missed expectations. Consumer spending is also raising concerns, and Personal Spending dipped to 0.0% in March, the first time the indicator hasn’t posted a gain since July 2016. Key employment data, highlighted by Nonfarm Payrolls, will be released on Friday. If these indicators miss expectations, investor jitters could push gold to higher levels.

President Trump has managed to avert a partial government shutdown, as lawmakers reached an agreement on the weekend. The short-term spending deal, which has bipartisan support, provides funding for government services until September 30th. The deal does not include any funding for a border wall with Mexico, marking a clear concession on the part of President Trump. Still, after a rocky 100 days in office, Trump could ill afford the embarrassment of the federal government running out of funds so early on his watch.

XAU/USD Fundamentals

Monday (May 1)

• 8:30 US Core PCE Price Index. Estimate -0.1%. Actual -0.1%
• 8:30 US Personal Spending. Estimate 0.2%. Actual 0.0%
• 8:30 US Personal Income. Estimate 0.4%. Actual 0.2%
• 9:45 US Final Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 52.8. Actual 52.8
• 10:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 56.6. Actual 54.8
• 10:00 US Construction Spending. Estimate 0.5%. Actual -0.2%
• 10:00 US ISM Manufacturing Prices. Estimate 66.5. Actual 68.5
• 10:45 US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin Speech
• Tentative – US Loan Officer Survey

*All release times are GMT

*Key events are in bold

XAU/USD for Monday, May 1, 2017

XAU/USD May 1 at 12:35 EST

Open: 127.19 High: 1270.40 Low: 1254.61 Close: 1254.88

XAU/USD0 Technical

• XAU/USD posted losses in the Asian session. After a flat European session, the pair has resumed its downward movement in North American trade
• 1232 is providing support
• 1260 is a weak resistance line
• Current range: 1232 to 1260

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1232 and 1199 and 1175
• Above: 1260, 1285, 1307 and 1337

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

In the Monday session, XAU/USD ratio is showing long positions with a majority (60%). This is indicative of trader bias towards XAU/USD reversing directions and moving to higher levels. 

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