Gold – Support at $1150 Standing Tall

Gold – Tuesday 14 July 2015

Throughout the last few weeks gold has steadily declined and fallen from above the key $1200 level back to a new three month low below $1150 last week.  It has however enjoyed some solid support from the $1150 level throughout last week which stopped the sharp falls for the moment and allowed it to rally a little higher up to above $1160.  In the last 24 hours it has rallied higher but run into resistance at $1160 which has sent it lower again back towards $1155.   To finish out a couple of weeks ago it was able to rally against the medium term down trend and move back above the $1170 level before easing off again. A couple of weeks ago it surged higher to back above the key $1180 level before easing lower again. In the few days prior gold had been easing back to below the key $1200 level after recently surging higher to a three week high above $1205.

The $1200 level remains significant and is continuing to place selling pressure on gold and likely the $1180 level now too. Prior to the surge and in the last few weeks gold has been content to trade around the key $1180 level. Several weeks ago it rallied well to move from a two month low near $1160 back up to above $1190 again before easing back to the $1180 level. The key $1180 level has consistently provided solid support and has held it up now for a couple of months, with the exception of the recent excursion below. About a month ago gold fell sharply back through the key $1200 level and spent the remainder of that week consolidating in a narrow range around $1190. The $1200 level has been a significant level throughout most of this year and remains a key level presently offering reasonable resistance to higher prices, whilst lower the $1180 level continues to be significant. Throughout the last month or so the $1180 level has provided some support and has been called upon recently.

Earlier in May it was able to make a run through the $1200 level to reach a three month high above $1230 however gold was quickly sold off and returned back to the $1200 level where it enjoyed some support for several days. For around two months through April gold traded in a range between $1180 and around $1220 and had very few excursions outside these limits. Gold is currently pinned between resistance at $1200 and support at $1180 and it is surprising to see it trade in such a narrow range for several days. It seems it is waiting patiently for external factors to determine which level will be severely tested next.

(Daily chart / 4 hourly chart below)

Gold July 14 at 02:20 GMT   1155.9   H: 1158.5   L: 1155.3

Gold Technical

During the early hours of the Asian trading session on Tuesday, Gold is easing back towards $1155 after making another run at $1160.  Current range: trading right above $1155.

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1150.

• Above: 1200 and 1240.

OANDA’s Open Position Ratios

(Shows the ratio of long vs. short positions held for Gold among all OANDA clients. The left percentage (blue) shows long positions; the right percentage (orange) shows short positions.)

The long position ratio for Gold has eased back to just under 80% as Gold has rallied back up towards $1160. The trader sentiment is strongly in favour of long positions.

Economic Releases

• 01:30 AU NAB Business Conditions & Confidence (Jun)
• 03:00 JP BoJ Policy Statement and Governor Kuroda Press Conference
• 07:00 EU EU Finance Ministers Hold Meeting in Brussels
• 08:30 UK CPI (Jun)
• 08:30 UK Input & Output Prices (unadj.) (Jun)
• 08:30 UK ONS House Prices (May)
• 09:00 EU Industrial production (May)
• 09:00 EU ZEW (Economic Sentiment) (Jul)
• 12:30 US Import Price Index (Jun)
• 12:30 US Retail Sales (Jun)
• 14:00 US Business inventories (May)

* All release times are GMT

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