Gold Technicals – Breakout below 1,300 seen

Hourly Chart

European session yesterday saw Gold pushing higher towards 1,330 as expected on a technical rebound play off 1,317 soft support. Prices fell short of reaching the round number, topping at around 1,328.5 before pushing lower once more by technical guidance from the descending trendline.

It would be easy to simply claim that Gold actually went down during US session due to the increase in US stocks yesterday. This assertion makes sense considering that an increase in risk appetite should naturally bring Safe-Haven Gold lower. Another alternative hypothesis would say that US Stocks hike resulted in a hike of USD and hence dragging Gold lower. However, if we look at gold prices on Wednesday, we would notice that stock prices were lower together with gold,showing positive correlation. Hence this invalidates the claims that it is risk trends or perhaps USD dragging gold lower, and we have to accept instead that prices are actually under technical influence (which led to the expectations of gold hitting 1,330 yesterday).

If we  accept that technical influence is still strong, then the breakout of 1,310 consolidation floor and the break of 1,300 round figure and psychological support would have a high likelihood of producing a strong follow-through with the next bearish target at 1,265. With NFP numbers coming in later, there is a chance that Gold prices may increase especially if NFP numbers come in much lower than expected. Keep a look out and see if prices are able to climb back above 1,300 and preferably 1,310. Failure to do this may see continued technical bearish pressure sending price down lower again.

Fundamentally, we should keep a look out for any signs of Hedge Funds selling gold in bulk. These funds were spotted buying yellow metal when prices was around low 1,200s. If Hedge funds are getting cold feet from the recent sell-off in gold, we could see even stronger selling pressure moving forward and the gains made from 1,200 rebound may be given up quickly in the upcoming weeks.

More Links:
GBP/USD – Pound Steady as UK & US Post Strong Numbers
USD/CAD – Higher as US Posts Strong Data
USD/JPY – Dollar Climbs Close to 99 After Fed Statement

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