Oil steady, gold eyes FOMC

Oil steady after Chinese rumours fuel surge

Oil prices are relatively flat, trading with some caution on Wednesday after another decent move higher the day before. The prospect of fewer restrictions in China is certainly a good reason for the move on Tuesday, assuming of course there’s any actual truth or substance to it.

Broadly speaking though, it continues to trade around the middle of what appears to be the newly established range between $90 and $100, in the case of Brent. Should those rumours turn out to be well-founded and any changes significant, it will be interesting to see whether crude can test the upper end of this range.

Will the Fed disappoint gold bulls?

Trade has been choppy in gold over the last few weeks and I’m sure today’s Fed decision has contributed to that. Even a remotely dovish shift by the FOMC could trigger a relief rally in the yellow metal which could see it test last week’s highs, even $1,700. Of course, Powell may be in no mood to give anything away when there remains so much uncertainty so we shouldn’t be surprised if he keeps his cards close to his chest and disappoints gold bulls. Any indication that another 75bps is likely in December could see further pressure, maybe even $1,600 tested. That area has been a significant region of support in recent months.

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Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Former Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary.

His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News.

Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.