Oil’s big week, gold declines

Oil gains driven by OPEC+

Crude prices held onto the majority of this week’s OPEC+ driven gains after the NFP report showed the labor market remains strong but is showing signs of cooling. A strong dollar is eating away at some crude’s weekly gains, but that won’t have a lasting impact. ​

OPEC+ showed their cards this week and that will keep oil markets very tight as we approach winter. ​ OPEC+ has done whatever it takes and is now awaiting to see what the reaction will be from world leaders. The risks of $100 oil are easily back on the table and if it is a cold winter, we could see $110 before the end of the year. ​

Gold

Gold prices edged lower after a solid NFP report kept aggressive tightening by the Fed on the table. ​ Gold could be vulnerable leading up to next week’s inflation data as Wall Street wanted to see a much cooler NFP report today. ​ The economy is not breaking down as fast as some traders were anticipating. ​ If next week’s inflation does not deliver any cool surprises, a Fed pivot seems far away. Massive positioning might wait till Thursday’s inflation report, but until then, gold is vulnerable to a further slide towards the $1680 level. ​ ​

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