AUD/JPY Technical: At risk of a minor decline sequence

• An impending minor bearish reversal “Double Top” has been formed in the last two weeks.
• Failure to have a clear break above 98.40 long-term secular range resistance in place since October 2007 after a fifth retest last Friday, 24 November.
• Watch the key short-term resistance at 98.00.

This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “AUD/JPY Technical: Holding above the 20-day moving average” published on 22 November 2023. Click here for a recap.

The price actions of the AUD/JPY cross-pair have shaped the expected push-up right above the 96.85 short-term support as highlighted in our earlier analysis and retested the 98.40 long-term secular range resistance for the fifth time last Friday, 24 November.

Impending bearish minor “Double Top” sighted

Fig 1: AUD/JPY minor short-term trend as of 30 Nov 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)

The AUD/JPY has started to inch down lower after last Friday’s retest on the 98.40 long-term secular range resistance as price actions have conjured into a potential minor bearish reversal “Double Top” configuration as seen on its short-term hourly chart since 16 November 2023 swing high.

In addition, the hourly RSI momentum indicator has continued to exhibit a potential resurgence of short-term bearish momentum as it failed to break above a parallel resistance at the 55 level.

Watch the 98.00 key short-term pivotal resistance and a break below 96.85 (the neckline support of the minor “Double Top”) exposes the next intermediate support zone of 96.10/95.80 (also the 50-day moving average).

On the flipside, a clearance above 98.00 invalidates the bearish tone for a retest on the 98.40/55 long-term secular range resistance.

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